New Poll Has Gavin Newsom Losing Recall Election by Double Digits

State   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Aug 5, 2021   |   1:25PM   |   Sacramento, California

A new Survey USA poll has voters wanting pro-abortion California Gov. Gavin Newsom losing the recall election by double digits. Survey USA shows 51% want him recalled and 40% don’t.

“51% of likely voters in California’s upcoming gubernatorial recall election today would vote Yes to recall incumbent California Governor Gavin Newsom, according to SurveyUSA’s latest exclusive polling for KABC-TV in Los Angeles and KGTV 10News and The San Diego Tribune,” writes the polling outfit.

“Republicans support recall by an 8:1 margin; Democrats oppose by a smaller 3:1 margin. Independents support recalling the Governor by 5:3. Those who have been partially or fully vaccinated against the Coronavirus narrowly back recall, 47% to 43%; those who have not been vaccinated, 18% of likely voters, support recalling Newsom by a 40-point margin. White voters vote to recall Newsom by a 21-point margin, 56% to 35%; Latinos narrowly vote to recall, 47% to 41%. Black voters vote no, to keep Newsom, by a 52-point margin; Asians vote no by a 37-point margin. “Likely” voters vote No, 43% to 36%; “100% certain” voters break Yes by 3:2,” adds Survey USA.

Another state poll shows the race a dead heat as a survey from Emerson shows 48% are now against the recall and 46% support removing Newsom.

More than half of Hispanics in California say they would vote to recall Newsom, according to an Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll published Tuesday.

The poll of 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, showed Californians are split on the issue with 46% in favor of recalling Newsom and 48% are against it. Among Hispanics, 54% said they would vote to recall.

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A majority of black and Asian respondents support keeping Newsom, while among whites, support for and opposition to removing the governor is evenly split, according to the poll.

“As it turns out, COVID is re-emerging,” said Golden State political insider Darry Sragow. “And now the fact is the governor is going to have to handle it in a way that reassures these Democratic voters.”

“How close the recall turns out to be depends on exactly one thing and only one thing,” Sragow said. “And that is whether Democrats take the time to vote.”

The special election is scheduled for Sept. 14, and 41 Californians are officially running against Newsom.

Vice President Kamala Harris will campaign for Newsom amid the recall. Before becoming vice president, Harris had been California’s U.S. senator since 2017, and the state’s attorney general from 2011 to 2017.

Talk radio host Larry Elder, the leading Republican candidate, gained seven points compared to July’s Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll.

About 40% of Republicans surveyed were still undecided on who should replace Newsom, according to the poll.

A Republican primary depends on whether Californians vote in favor of recalling Newsom.  The challenger who receives the most votes finishes out the incumbent’s term in office.