With the U.S. economy in dire straits, the re-election and approval data for pro-abortion President Barack Obama doesn’t look good — as new Gallup information shows the president under 50 percent in all but 11 states.
According to six months of Gallup polling, Obama eclipses the 50 percent mark in just 11 states and the District of Columbia. Added together, the states and the nation’s capital district would net Obama just 173 of the 270 electoral college votes he would need to win re-election to another four-year term.
The data Gallup released today is a state-by-state look at more than 90,000 interviews dating back to January of this year and, given the current poor state of the economy and the fact that poling data from Gallup recently showed him at his lowest levels historically, the analysis is likely worse than Gallup indicates when it includes older numbers. In January, Gallup rated Obama at a 49-45 percent approval rating and that has dropped to 42-50 percent today.
The 11 states that favor Obama include the New England and Northeast states (other than New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island), Illinois, Minnesota and California.
“Obama’s support is greatest in the East, with 8 of his 10 highest approval ratings occurring in states located in the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic region of the country. The 2 non-Eastern states ranking among the 10 highest are Obama’s home states of Hawaii and Illinois,” Gallup noted. “States giving Obama his lowest approval ratings are more varied regionally, with several in the West but also including Southern and Midwestern states.”
“As President Obama prepares for his re-election bid next year, his approval ratings nationally and at the state level bear watching. Typically, presidents with approval ratings above 50% get re-elected, though George W. Bush won re-election in 2004 with a 48% approval rating at the time of the election,” Gallup noted. “Thus, a key for Obama is to try to push his national approval rating back above the 50% mark before November 2012, and to have it at or above that level in as many states as possible, given that the presidential election will be determined by the winner of the greater number of state electoral votes.”
Including the historic data, Obama has a 50%+ mark in just 16 states and D.C., netting only 215 of the 270 electoral votes needed for election. To win re-election, he would need to capture Iowa, Pennsylvania, Florida and Georgia, states where he enjoys a 47-49 percent approval rating.
The picture is likely more bleak for Obama as Gallup only measured adults, rather than registered or likely voters. Doing so, which gives a more accurate picture of the election landscape, would provide a more favorable picture for Republicans and a bleaker one for the abortion advocate.
Obama hit a 50 percent disapproval level in Gallup’s survey just once — in August 2010 — and his approval rating has never dropped to 40 percent before.
The Gallup survey follows a late July poll of 1,500 registered voters by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press that finds support for Obama among independents has fallen from 42 percent in May to 31 percent while his disapproval with them has shot up to 54 percent.
“The sizeable lead Barack Obama held over a generic Republican opponent in polls conducted earlier this year has vanished,” Pew said. “Currently, 41% of registered voters say they would like to see Obama reelected, while 40% say they would prefer to see a Republican candidate win in 2012. In May, Obama held an 11-point lead.”
The Pew survey finds that even with the 11 point lead over a generic Republican, which Obama had in May after the death of Osama bin Laden, Republicans are still not focused on his replacement as just 24 percent have given much thought to their 2012 options. Overall in the GOP race, Mitt Romney continues to hold a significant lead among Republican voters with 21%, followed by Rick Perry at 12%, Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann at 11%, Ron Paul at 9% and Herman Cain at 8%.
Still, the survey finds just 31% of independent voters want to see Obama reelected, down from 42% in May and 40% in March. Where Obama held a slim 7-point edge among independent registered voters two months ago, a generic Republican holds an 8-point edge today. This is consistent with a drop in Obama’s approval among all independents. Currently, a majority (54%) disapprove of Obama’s performance for the first time in his presidency. His approval among independents has slipped to 36% from 42% last month and 49% in late May.