Colorado: Tom Tancredo Would Tie Hickenlooper Without Dan Maes in Race

State   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Oct 29, 2010   |   4:24PM   |   Denver, CO

Tom Tancredo, the pro-life candidate for governor against pro-abortion John Hickenlooper, would be tied with the Denver mayor if not for the presence of candidate Dan Maes.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Colorado shows Hickenlooper with a 47% to 42% lead over Tancredo, a former GOP congressman.

Maes, the failed Republican candidate whose campaign has died due to scandals and other problems, gets the support of 5 percent of voters — just enough to prevent Tancredo from tying Hickenlooper.

The poll found 6 percent of Colorado residents like another candidate in the race, though that figure is not expected to hold up in the final numbers. Another one percent of voters are undecided.
“This is the best showing yet for both Hickenlooper and Tancredo,” Rasmussen noted. It moved the race back to leaning towards Hickenlooper, appearing to believe Tancredo can’t close the gap with just days remaining.
Two weeks ago, Hickenlooper, the mayor of Denver, held a 42% to 38% lead over Tancredo, with Maes at 12. 
Support for Tancredo, who entered the race saying Maes cannot beat Hickenlooper, has risen from 14% in late August, while Maes’ support has dropped from a high of 31% just after his GOP Primary win earlier that month.  In that same period, Hickenlooper’s support has generally held steady in the low to mid 40s.
The results of the race will be determined by the question of how quickly Maes’s support can continue evaporating. Early voting totals make it clear that Republicans are outnumbering Democrats and independents are breaking towards Tancredo. If enough early voters did not punch a ballot for Maes before learning about his campaign deflating, Tancredo has a real shot at capturing a win.
Two weeks ago, state officials indicated 81,545 Republicans have cast early ballots compared with just 71,325 Democrats. Some 41,000 unaffiliated voters have also cast ballots and, if they voted the way polls show, a majority likely voted for Buck.
Now, according to new figures out Wednesday, Republicans have cast 40,000 more ballots than Democrats. Approximately 26 percent of registered Republicans have voted compared with about 22 percent of registered Democrats and a lower percentage of unaffiliated voters. That four point edge is up from two percent two weeks ago.
For pro-life advocates, Tancredo’s running mate Pat Miller, a former state legislator and the head of Citizens for Responsible Government, tells that Tancredo is the best option — especially since Hickenlooper has the endorsement of the NARAL pro-abortion group.
“Tom’s a solid pro-life candidate and if he wasn’t, I wouldn’t have accepted his request to be his running mate,” she said. “Any pro-life bill that gets to Tom’s desk when he’s Governor will be signed into law.”
“We believe that a government that will not protect life from conception to natural death will not protect any other right we have,” Miller, a member of the board of directors of the statewide pro-life group Colorado Citizens for Life, added. [related]
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Colorado was conducted on October 28, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports and there is a 4 percent margin of error.
Republican Ken Buck, who is pro-life, still holds a slight lead over pro-abortion incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet as Colorado’s U.S. Senate race heads down to the wire.