Iowa Polling Data Was Largely Correct in Predicting Huckabee, Obama Wins

State   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Jan 4, 2008   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

Iowa Polling Data Was Largely Correct in Predicting Huckabee, Obama Wins Email this article
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by Steven Ertelt Editor
January 4,

Des Moines, IA ( — Media outlets continually examine the horse race when it comes to the presidential primary elections and a review of the polling data from Iowa just before Thursday night’s caucus vote shows many polls were reliable. Most of the polls showed the tight Democratic contest and Huckabee and Romney leading.

Among Republican voters, Mike Huckabee won with 34 percent of the vote, Mitt Romney came in second with 25 percent and Fred Thompson and John McCain both had 13 percent.

Looking at the final Iowa polls, the Insider Advantage polling firm had the correct order with Huckabee at 30, Romney 24, and McCain and Thompson at 11 each. It also correctly showed Giuliani back in the pack with four percent.

The American Research Group had the right order as well, with its final poll showing Huckabee at 29, Romney at 24, Thompson with 13 and McCain at 11.

Zogby International, known for its correct predictions in general election races, got the Iowa caucus right, too. It had Huckabee winning with 31, Romney at 25, Thompson 11 and McCain 10. Like the others, it showed Giuliani falling.

The Des Moines Register, an influential state newspaper that some said showed contrasting results compared with other pre-caucus polls, got it mostly right as well. The Register had Huckabee at 32 and Romney at 26 but incorrectly had McCain in third with 16 percent.

The Republican Strategic Vision polling firm and CNN both incorrectly had Romney winning the race.

On the Democratic side, Insider Advantage correctly predicted the Obama, Edwards, Clinton order of finish as did Zogby International, the Des Moines Register and the Republican Strategic Vision firm.

American Research group had the results all wrong showing Clinton with a large lead on her rivals as did CNN, which had Clinton with a lead and Edwards far behind.