New Poll Shows President Trump Would Beat Joe Biden in a Rematch

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Aug 1, 2022   |   12:27PM   |   Washington, DC

A new Rasmussen national poll shows President Donald Trump would defeat Biden in a rematch held today. A majority of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, a radical abortion activist who would lose a rematch election with Trump, who is pro-life.

A new national telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports finds that, if the election were held today, just 40% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote to reelect Biden, while 46% would vote for Trump. Another 10% would choose some other candidate in a Biden-Trump rematch.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters have an unfavorable impression of Biden, including 43% who have a Very Unfavorable view of the president. Forty-one percent (43%) view Biden favorably, including 22% who have a Very Favorable impression of him.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters view Trump favorably, including 29% who have a Very Favorable impression of the former president. Forty-seven percent (47%) view Trump unfavorably, including 38% who have a Very Unfavorable impression of him.

Trump has stronger support among his own party’s base than does Biden, and independent voters favor Trump over Biden by an eight-point margin. If the election were held today, Trump would get the votes of 77% of Republicans, 20% of Democrats and 42% of voters unaffiliated with either major party, while 70% of Democrats, 15% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters would vote for Biden.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republican voters view Trump favorably, including 57% who have a Very Favorable impression of the former president. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Democratic voters view Biden favorably, including 42% who have a Very Favorable impression of him. Among unaffiliated voters, 43% view Trump favorably and 36% view Biden favorably.

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In a rematch, 48% of whites, 28% of Black voters and 48% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 52% of Black voters, 41% of whites and 30% of other minorities would vote for Biden.

There is not much evidence of a “gender gap” in a hypothetical Trump-Biden rematch, although more men (32%) than women voters (27%) have a Very Favorable impression of Trump.

A majority (52%) of voters 65 and older would choose Trump in a rematch with Biden, and Trump would beat Biden 48%-41% among voters ages 40-64. Voters under 40 slightly favor Biden (39%) over Trump (38%).

A majority (51%) of voters with annual incomes over $200,000 view Biden favorably, while 52% of those with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 have a Very Unfavorable impression of the president. In a hypothetical rematch election, Biden would get 58% of the votes of those earning more than $200,000 a year, while those with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 would favor Trump by a 28-point margin, 59%-31%.

The survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on July 26-27, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.