High turnout in the 2022 Republican primaries could signal a red wave that allows the GOP to retake Congress in November, according to data from JMC Analytics & Polling.
As of Wednesday, GOP voters are projected to have made up about 54% of the turnout in the Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania primary races, according to JMC. Republican turnout increased to about 61% when the states that held primaries prior to Tuesday are included.
“In every state where I’ve been measuring turnout changes relative to previous midterms, I’m seeing a clear advantage on the Republican side,” JMC Analytics founder John Couvillon told the New York Post. He said the numbers were the opposite of the 2018 primaries, which preceded a blue wave.
Overall turnout is up by 15% compared to the 2018 primaries, with a 32% increase in Republican turnout, according to JMC data. Democratic turnout is down 3% compared to 2018, including 29% in former battleground state Ohio.
It increased by about 12% in North Carolina and 15% in Pennsylvania, but the GOP raised its turnout in those states by 86% and 54%, respectively, JMC’s data found.
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“States that are swinging and are Republican are going to move far to the right,” Couvillion told the NYP the data indicates. He noted, however, that there is still a great deal of time left before the general election and that the 10 primaries held thus far are “not super representative.”
Democrats have seen a number of incumbents choose not to run for reelection amid projections of Republican strength in the midterms. Thus far, over 30 House Democrats have opted not to seek another term.
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