When I read that Republicans led Democrats in the “generic ballot” 47% to 43%, I confess that I missed the significance what that is saying.*
For the most part, Republicans have registered in the low 40s, occasionally as high as 46%. This election cycle they have steadily moved forward. But…
“You have to go back to 2010, the year of the tea party and the red tsunami, to find Republicans at 47 percent,” Ed Morrissey of Hotair.com explained. “And in that year, it didn’t happen until August. On February 10, 2010, the party stood at 45.2 percent, three points ahead of the Dems.”
There are a lot of ways to look at this, and all ominous for President Biden. For one thing, Republicans are less willing to talk to pollsters. Almost inevitably, that means that the projected numbers badly underestimate the turnout on Election Day.
For another, Byron York’s piece in the Washington Examiner yesterday that we commented on was a goldmine of insights. For our purposes here, the 3rd reason President is in deep trouble is most important:
Joe Biden’s future job approval rating. Yes, Biden is low now, but might his approval rise in coming months, enough to rescue his party in November? That is very, very unlikely. “Looking back more than 70 years, there hasn’t been a single president who substantially improved his job approval rating from late January/early February of a midterm election year to late October/early November,” wrote elections analyst Nathan Gonzales. Instead, Gonzales noted that most presidents’ job approval rating actually fell in the months preceding midterm elections.
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That last sentence is one, no doubt, that the White House frets over night and day.
*According to Gary Halbert, “The generic ballot is a political poll which asks not which candidate you plan to vote for to represent you in Congress or for president, but rather which political party [Democrat, Republican or Independent] you would vote for if the election were held today.”
LifeNews.com Note: Dave Andrusko is the editor of National Right to Life News and an author and editor of several books on abortion topics. This post originally appeared in at National Right to Life News Today —- an online column on pro-life issues.