Florida is on track to be a tossup in the 2020 general election, a new poll published Monday by NBC News finds.
NBC surveyed 766 likely voters between August 31-September 6 and found that 48 percent of respondents plan to vote for both Trump and Biden in November. The race appears to show a dramatic shift from the 2016 election results, as Trump (50) leads Biden (46) by 4 points among likely Latino voters, while the former VP (49) leads POTUS (48) by 1 point when it comes to seniors.
NBC notes that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton carried 62 percent of Florida’s Latino voters in 2016, compared to 35 percent for Trump. Likewise, Trump bested Clinton by 17 points (57-40) among senior citizens.
A related poll from the Miami Herald published Monday found that Latino voters in Miami-Dade County preferred Trump over Biden by 1 percent, but Cuban-American voters in the area favored Trump by 38 percent.
“If you’re the Biden campaign, looking at these numbers, I think there’s reason for pause,” Fernand Amandi, a Democratic strategist behind the poll said of its findings. “It might imperil his chances of winning Florida unless there is a massive white voter exodus from Trump in other parts of the state.”
538 similarly reported Monday that Trump’s national support among Latinos — ranging between roughly 25-33 percent — is integral to his reelection chances.
The national race has tightened following the conclusion of the Republican and Democratic National Conventions. Real Clear Politics’ national polling average currently gives Biden a 7 point advantage over Trump.