Editor’s note. After we posted this story earlier today, Fox News reported, “Joe Biden’s recent nine-point edge over Donald Trump has evaporated. According to a new Fox News Poll of registered voters, the incumbent president and presumed Democratic nominee now tie with 42 percent support apiece.
Over the years I have learned (over and over and over again) how fallible so-called political experts can be. I can remember election night 2000 like it was yesterday. CNN prematurely called Florida for Al Gore. They had forgotten, or ignored in an attempt to depress turnout, that the state straddles two time zones [Eastern and Central] and that there were lots of votes that hadn’t been counted from the part of the state that was in the Central time zone.
Likewise, today, (a) surveys that poll likely voters are more accurate than those that poll registered voters; and (b) what matter most [because we have the Electoral College] are the “Battleground” states.
The New York Times’ Nate Cohen (no fan of President Trump) reminded readers of those two truths in a post that appeared this morning under the headline, “Why Biden’s Polling Lead vs. Trump Isn’t as Solid as It Looks.”
Early on Cohn writes
If anyone holds the early edge, it is Mr. Biden. He leads by an average of six points in national live-interview polls of registered voters. But the election will be decided by voters in the battleground states, not registered voters nationwide, and there the story is not nearly so clear or rosy for Mr. Biden.
At the moment, a reasonable estimate is that Mr. Biden is performing four or five points worse among likely voters in the critical states than he is among registered voters nationwide. As a result, he holds only a narrow and tenuous edge in the race for the Electoral College, if he holds one at all.
Cohen tackle the usual usuals, including the former Vice President’s strong support “among nonwhite voters,” adding the intriguing caveat, “though here there is consistent evidence of a small yet discernible shift in the president’s direction, including in the large series of New York Times/Siena College polls from last November.”
Cohen goes on to cite President Trump seeming “to do a tick worse among white voters than he did four years ago, whether because of a slight decrease in his standing among college-educated white voters or the growing share of white voters who possess a four-year degree.”
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One of two key paragraphs comes next:
As a result, Mr. Trump appears to retain his relative advantage in the disproportionately white working-class battleground states that decided the 2016 presidential election. Mr. Biden leads in polls of registered voters in these states, but by a narrower margin than he leads nationwide. It raises the possibility that Democrats could win the most votes and lose the White House for the third time in six presidential elections.
The second key paragraph comes near the end:
Together, Mr. Trump’s relative advantage of one to two points among likely voters compared with registered voters — and his relative advantage of three and even four points in the tipping-point states — means that the typical national poll of registered voters is probably around four or five points worse for Mr. Trump than his standing among likely voters in the most pivotal states. Mr. Biden’s already narrow polling lead in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Arizona might be vanishingly small after a likely voter screen.
One other monumentally significant consideration which we talked about last week, based on a story written by Lisa Lerer. She observed
But over the [end of March] weekend, a Washington Post/ABC News poll showed another measure of political strength for the president that’s probably worth your attention.
Enthusiasm.
Simply put, Republicans are more excited to vote for Mr. Trump than Democrats are for Joe Biden, their likely nominee.
According to the Post/ABC survey, 55 percent of registered voters who back Mr. Trump say they are very enthusiastic about supporting him, and 32 percent say they are somewhat enthusiastic. Among Mr. Biden’s supporters, just 28 percent say they are very enthusiastic, while 46 percent are somewhat enthusiastic.
Overall, there’s a 12-point enthusiasm gap between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden. Among the most excited voters, it’s an even bigger 27-point gap.
And while money is hardly everything, it is still important. Here’s what the Associated Press reported today:
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s record-setting fundraising pace slowed slightly amid the coronavirus outbreak but remained strong as he maintains a massive cash advantage over Democrats.
All this is very much worth remembering as the major media gear up an all guns blazing offensive to defeat pro-life President Trump.
Post-Script. Hot Air’s Jazz Shaw had additional insights into what the new Fox News poll revealed.
“One remarkable feature of these results isn’t just Biden losing nine points overall. It’s the specific groups he lost steam with. He lost nine points with women since the last poll. …
“Even more remarkable than Biden’s drop in support with women is the fact that he lost an even larger percentage (11 points) among non-white voters. It’s hard to point to any specific news items that would cause that, but the Trump campaign has been dumping massive amounts of money into an ad campaign targeting minority voters. The DNC generally just takes those votes for granted and doesn’t put in much work to keep their support, so perhaps the President’s tactics are starting to bear some fruit for him.
LifeNews.com Note: Dave Andrusko is the editor of National Right to Life News and an author and editor of several books on abortion topics. This post originally appeared in at National Right to Life News Today —- an online column on pro-life issues.
