Polling Shows Rubio, Hillary Top 2016 for GOP, Democrats

Politics   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Dec 6, 2012   |   8:55PM   |   Washington, DC

A new poll conducted by the Democratic poling firm PPP shows pro-life Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is the top choice for Republicans for 2016. However, the poll fails to include pro-life Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, which some political observers say skews the results since he is a top potential 2016 presidential candidate.

With conservatives still smarting from the November election defeat, look for jockeying for the 2016 nomination to begin early as restless Republicans look forward to replacing Obama.

As PPP reports:

PPP’s newest national poll finds Marco Rubio as the early choice of Republicans for 2016. 18% would like him to be their nominee to 14% for Chris Christie, 12% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 8% for Condoleezza Rice, 7% each for Sarah Palin and Rand Paul, and 4% for Rick Santorum.

Rubio’s ahead because of his strength with the most conservative wing of the party. Among ‘very conservative’ voters he’s at 23% to 17% for Paul Ryan and 13% for Mike Huckabee. He also had the advantage with folks describing themselves as ‘somewhat conservative’ at 22% to 14% for Chris Christie and 13% for Jeb Bush. Christie has a big lead with moderates at 35% to 20% for Bush and 11% for Huckabee with Rubio all the way back at 5%. But there just aren’t that many moderates left in the Republican Party.

The thing that really stands out here is Christie being at the bottom of the pile. Although his cooperation with President Obama in relation to Hurricane Sandy doesn’t seem to have hurt him with Republicans in New Jersey, these numbers suggest it has caused some irritation with him outside the state. His favorability with folks describing themselves as ‘very conservative’ is only 42/31, with every other person we tested over 60%.



On the Democratic side it continues to be no contest. Hillary Clinton leads the way at 61% to 12% for Joe Biden, 5% for Andrew Cuomo, 4% for Elizabeth Warren, 2% for Martin O’Malley, and 1% each for Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, and Mark Warner.

If neither Clinton nor Biden runs the big winner is ‘undecided.’ 45% of voters aren’t sure who they would support with Cuomo leading at 21% to 16% for Warren, 8% for Patrick, 5% for O’Malley, 3% for Warner, and 2% for Schweitzer.

Clinton has at least 60% support with all three major ideological factions of the party- ‘very liberal’ voters, ‘somewhat liberal’ ones, and moderates. One thing that really stands out in the crosstabs is that 74% of African Americans want her to be the standard bearer next time. There doesn’t seem to be any residual ill will over her 2008 battle with Barack Obama.