New Polls Confirm Romney Momentum in Battleground States

Politics   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Oct 31, 2012   |   12:01PM   |   Washington, DC

New polling data confirms Mitt Romney is surging in key battleground states and could be headed not only to an election victory over pro-abortion President Barack Obama but a bigger victory than initially expected.

Roanoke College surveyed likely voters in Virginia and found Romney leading by five percent:

Governor Mitt Romney has overtaken President Barack Obama by a very narrow margin in Virginia (49% – 44%), according to a Roanoke College Poll conducted after the Presidential debates. Republican George Allen also enjoys a 5 point lead over Democrat Tim Kaine (47% – 42%) in the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Virginia. The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 638 likely voters in Virginia between Oct. 23 and October 26 and has a margin of error of +4 percent. Employing a more stringent screen for likely voters (N=503) increases Romney’s lead to 54 percent to 41 percent and Allen’s lead to 51 percent to 39 percent.

Romney leads among those who identify themselves as Independents (59% – 33%).

Obama should be having little trouble holding on to the reliably Democrat state of Michigan, but in a sign his campaign is flailing nationwide, a new poll from the Detroit News shows Obama below 50% — and Mitt Romney within the margin of error.

Mitt Romney is within striking distance of Barack Obama in Michigan in the final days before the election, buoyed by more who are convinced the Republican is a viable alternative to the president, with the ability to turn around the economy.

Obama’s lead over Romney has shrunk to just under 3 points, 47.7 percent to 45 percent, with 3.8 percent undecided, according to a new Detroit News/WDIV Local 4 poll of likely voters. Obama’s lead was 6.7 points earlier this month and has eroded to within the poll’s 4 percentage point margin of error. It’s the smallest advantage for the Democratic president during the Michigan campaign.

“Mitt Romney’s numbers … are where they would need to be if he hopes to pull off an upset next week,” said Richard Czuba of Glengariff Group Inc., which conducted the poll. “But the question is: Is there enough for a final push?”

Obama’s campaign “is going on Detroit broadcast TV” with ads for the final week of the campaign. An Obama aide explained the MI buy: “Restore Our Future went up with a $2 million buy in Michigan. We’re matching states where they go up.” having to defend in Michigan means less money for other states where Obama must win.

Meanwhile, Romney has moved ahead of Obama in North Carolina according to a WRAL News poll released Tuesday.

SurveyUSA polled 682 likely voters statewide between Saturday and Monday and found that 50 percent would vote for Romney and 45 percent for Obama if the election were held now. The remaining 5 percent were either undecided or voting for another candidate. In a WRAL News poll conducted four weeks ago, Obama and Romney were in a virtual dead heat for North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, with Obama at 49 percent and Romney at 47 percent.

Pollsters say once a challenger gets to 50% in the polls, an incumbent is in real trouble. Mitt Romney is now there. The same holds true in state-by-state polling of key swing states. Just in the past week or so, Romney hit 50% for the first time in individual polls in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire. Another tipping point is favorability rating. Romney has just topped 50% there, too.

National Right to Life president Carol Tobias talked about the poor numbers for Obama.



“Along with the reasons to defeat Barack Obama, our supporters want to know that he can be defeated. Knowing we can win gives our members and volunteers all the more reason to get out and vote, to talk to their friends and neighbors about why Mitt Romney deserves their support, and to help knock on doors, pass out literature and make get-out-the-vote calls on behalf of pro-life candidates,” she said. “The Obama campaign is trying to spin narratives that they’re leading in early voting (although an analysis by Gallup shows Romney leading 52-46% among early voters nationwide), or that they’ll have a great get-out-the-vote effort. Well, that remains to be seen. It might just be they’re saying that so their supporters believe they have a chance to win and don’t give up on them and not go to the polls next Tuesday.”

“Don’t get me wrong, this election will be close,” Tobias added. “Every pro-life friend of yours has to be encouraged to go to the polls and to vote for all their pro-life candidates. But the fact that we are within striking distance of not only winning the presidency for the cause of life, but the U.S. Senate and House and several new governorships as well, gives us all the more reason to do everything in our power to defeat Barack Obama in this last week before the final vote!”