Romney Early Voting Lead Could Portend Election Victory

Politics   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Oct 30, 2012   |   11:28AM   |   Washington, DC

Mitt Romney holds a strong lead in early voting results that could pave the way for an election victory over pro-abortion President Barack Obama.

Yesterday, Gallup leased a new poll showing Romney leading Obama in early voting, something that had been a key part of the Obama campaign strategy. The polling firm also reported that more Republicans than Democrats have already voted by a margin of 19 to 15 percent.

“When those who intend to vote before Election Day are factored in, the gap is similar: 37 percent of Republicans vs. 33 percent of Democrats,” it said.

“Romney currently leads Obama 52 percent to 45 percent among voters who say they have already cast their ballots,” Gallup reported. “However, that is comparable to Romney’s 51 percent to 46 percent lead among all likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 22-28 tracking polling.”

The race is tied at 49 percent among those who have not voted but plan to vote early: “However, Romney leads 51 percent to 45 percent among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.”

Gallup also found 15 percent of registered voters nationwide have already cast their ballots, up from only 5 percent a week earlier. With Romney leading with these voters, he could already have a lead in key battleground states that decide the election.

“The overall percentage either having already voted or planning to vote before Election Day has also increased — to 33 percent, from roughly 25 percent in each of the prior three weeks,” Gallup indicated.

“Early voting could play a pivotal role if it results in higher turnout among a particular candidate’s supporters than would otherwise be the case if everyone waited for Election Day,” according to Gallup. “As a result, the presidential campaigns are urging their supporters in swing states, in particular, to lock in their vote now, lest anything interfere with their ability to turn out on Nov. 6. There are reports that Hurricane Sandy has disrupted early voting in parts of the East; but given the relatively low rate of early voting in that region, this may not have a major impact on early voting overall.”

“At present, early voting appears to be a convenience that older voters are using disproportionately; they may welcome the opportunity to vote by mail rather than in person on Election Day,” said Gallup. “It is also relatively common in the West and among postgraduates, groups that may have better access to information about how to navigate the early voting process. Some states not only encourage early voting, but mandate it, thus accounting for regional differences. However, despite the hype, it doesn’t appear that early voting will have a major impact on the U.S. popular vote, or be much more prevalent than it was four years ago.”

John Wayward of Human Events responded to the Gallup early voting news.

Also, a slightly higher percentage of Romney voters indicated they have either already voted, or plan to vote early (2 percent and 1 percent more, respectively) and 4 percent more Republicans have voted early.  The total percentage of early voters is roughly comparable to what it was in 2008.

This is not at all consistent with the story peddled by Obama-friendly media outlets for the past few weeks.  Reading from Obama campaign press releases, they’ve been insisting Obama has a big lead among early voters, and a massive surge of early votes has been flooding in.  There’s a very specific reason for pushing that narrative: it’s supposed to offset the despair among Obama’s base as they watch the best national polling outfits track a powerful shift of momentum in Romney’s favor, giving him a solid lead.  Democrats are meant to be heartened by the notion that their candidate already has a big “secret lead” tucked into his electoral bank, thanks to early voting.



Brietbart also spotted the Gallup information and shows how it may be a gamechanger for the election.

Almost exactly four years ago (October 28, 2008),  according to Gallup, Obama was massacring John McCain among early voters with a fifteen-point lead, 55-40%. That means, at least according to Gallup, that Obama’s early vote advantage has dropped 22 points when compared to ’08.

Obama had a 55/40 lead on McCain with early voters in ’08, but only led by 3 pts with the election day crowd.  He ended up winning by 7 overall.

In other words, among those who actually voted on Election Day, Obama’s advantage over McCain was only three-points. Obama won by seven overall because of the early vote margins he had accumulated. If Gallup is correct about 2012 and Romney being ahead by seven with early voters, that means Obama’s in very deep trouble. Even polls that show Obama with a small lead in states like Ohio confirm Romney will win among those who vote on Election Day.