Obama Bounce Erased: Romney Leads Obama 48-45 in New Poll

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Sep 14, 2012   |   11:06AM   |   Washington, DC

A new national Rasmussen Reports poll shows the bounce pro-abortion President Barack Obama received following the Democratic national convention has been erased and challenger Mitt Romney now leads 48-45 percent.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Romney attracting the support of 48 percent of Americans, compared with 45 percent who back the president. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. Last week, pollster Scott Rasmussen anticipated this fade by noting that the conventions would have no lasting impact  on the race.













“The recent numbers may have been impacted by a number of factors,” Rasmussen said. “Clearly, one is the fading of the president’s convention bounce.”

“A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) at least somewhat disapprove,” Rasmussen explained.

Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 28% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -14.

“During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout,” Rasmussen said.

Bad economic news seems to be the reason Obama’s numbers have faded in the poll.

“Additionally, last week’s jobs report was disappointing. However, consumer confidence did not fall in the wake of that report. That may be due to the fact that the poor results were no surprise to consumers,” Rasmussen said. “Confidence also may have been impacted by the Fed decision to provide additional stimulus. That decision boosted both the stock market and investor confidence. Nearly half of all consumers are also investors.”




“Finally, it is way too early to evaluate the political impact, if any, from recent events in the Middle East. Today’s tracking data shows that despite the extensive news coverage of Arab attacks on U.S. embassies, only six percent (6%) of voters consider national security issues the most important during this election cycle,” Rasmussen continued. “That’s little changed from five percent (5%) before the attacks began. Additionally, voters currently trust the president more than Romney on national security issues by a narrow 46% to 43% margin. That, too, is little changed following recent events.”

While Romney holds a narrow three percentage point lead, Rasmussen indicates his firms swing state polling shows close races in the top battleground states.

In Ohio Obama leads by a point. In Florida,  the president is up two. Romney has edged back into the lead in Missouri and now earns 51% of the vote in North Carolina, Rasmussen noted.