In a new analysis issued by former Bush strategist Karl Rove, pro-abortion President Barack Obama holds a sizable lead in the electoral college race over likely Republican nominee Mitt Romney.
The first Karl Rove & Co. 2012 Electoral College map looks very similar to the election landscapes of the last three presidential elections — where Republican candidates performed well in the South and Midwest while the Democratic nominees performed well in the Northeast, upper Midwest and West. Rove points out some of the states that have been tossup states in the past remain so for the 2012 election.
“National polls show it is going to be a tight race between the two candidates, with Obama leading Romney by only 3.9 points in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate. A closer look at how they match up on a state-by-state basis reveals the race to 270 Electoral College votes will likely come down to a handful of states,” he said.
Rove shows 18 states (220 electoral votes) where Obama has a solid lead and 15 states (93 electoral votes) where Romney has a solid lead, according to the latest polling average in each state. He identifies six states with a combined 82 electoral votes as pure tossups — Iowa, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. Five states with 64 electoral college votes lean to Obama (Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania), while six states with 79 electoral college votes lean to Romney (Arizona, Georgia, Kentucky, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas).
“In other words, there are 17 states and a total of 225 Electoral College votes up for grabs,” Rove says.
Rove adds that most of the lean or tossup states will move in Romney’s direction as he solidifies his position as the Republican nominee.
“These projections will change as more polls are conducted in the coming weeks. Keep an eye on the “toss-‐up” and “lean” states where Romney now has an advantage: just about all of the “lean-‐Romney” states are generally Republican-‐safe states, while all of the “lean-‐Obama” states will most likely move to the “toss-‐up” or “lean-‐Romney” column as the campaigns progress,” Rove said.