New Jersey political analyst Alan Steinberg predicted on his blog that President Obama could dump Joe Biden as Vice President in 2012, adding instead pro-abortion Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) to the Democratic ticket.
Steinberg hypothesizes Biden will then replace Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State. There has been widespread speculation among political pundits for months that Biden may not accompany Obama on the 2012 ticket and that Clinton may not continue to serve as Secretary of State if Obama is reelected.
Steinberg predicts Sen. Hagan will be chosen as the Vice Presidential candidate ahead of the 2012 Democratic National Convention slated to be held in Charlotte, North Carolina. The pick is an obvious play for a state critical to Obama’s reelection. Narrowly edging out a win in the state in 2008, Obama may need a repeat win to offset losses in other swing states like Virginia, Ohio and Indiana, which are likely to flip back to Republicans. Obama is also in trouble in states like New Hampshire and Florida, which he carried in 2008 but swung decisively Republican in the 2010 midterm elections.
Democrats in North Carolina fared better in 2010 than in other swing states, which generally experienced an anti-Obama mood at the polls. Democrats held onto seven of North Carolina’s eleven House seats despite the national trends. Joe Biden’s home state of Delaware is indisputably a Democratic hold for Obama but the choice of Hagan could tip the scales and give him the boost he needs to carry North Carolina.
Picking Hagan may also be a play for women voters. Despite some pre-election speculation to the contrary, the “Hillary Democrats” ultimately turned out for Obama in 2008. But polling shows these Democrats were never really sold on Obama and could be shifting to the GOP in 2012.
“After 2008 (Clinton voters) were basically told get over it, and they haven’t gotten over it,” Amy Siskind, president of the liberal feminist group, The New Agenda, admitted to The Daily Caller.
A core group within Hillary’s 2008 coalition and arguably her most ardent supporters were Democratic women. In 2008, women voters went for Obama by a 13-point margin. However, in 2010 the GOP successfully pulled in women voters and won by a margin of 1%. That marks major shift in women’s views.
“I’d say few if any Hillary supporters have warmed up to the president…I certainly hope that changes by 2012, but it’s too late for women to feel like they’re doing better than they were 3 or 4 years ago” remarked Diane Mantouvalos, creator of liberal feminist website HireHeels.com.
“In Obama’s coalition, women do not play as strong a role,” commented Lara Brown, assistant professor of political science at Villanova University and former President Clinton appointee.
Like the appointment of Debbie Wasserman-Schultz to head the Democratic National Committee, the choice of Kay Hagan for VP would be an attempt by President Obama to win back women voters for his party. However, both Schultz and Hagan are far outside the mainstream when it comes to the issue of abortion.
2011 Gallup polling found 60 percent of women and 61 percent of men saying they want all or almost all abortions illegal. Women actually take a stronger pro-life view than men with 24 percent of American women wanting all abortions made illegal and 36 percent wanting almost all illegal, compared with 19 percent of men who want to ban all abortions and 42 percent of men who want to prohibit almost all.
Kay Hagan as Vice President would hold the status quo on abortion. Both Hagan and Vice President Biden are outspoken abortion advocates. During their terms in the Senate, Hagan and Biden each earned a 0% rating from the National Right to Life Committee. Hagan voted to use taxpayer dollars to fund Planned Parenthood and in favor of the pro-abortion Obama healthcare law.
