Poll: 38 Percent of Americans Won’t Vote for Obama in 2012

Politics   |   Steven Ertelt   |   May 16, 2011   |   11:34AM   |   Washington, DC

A new Politico-George Washington University poll finds 38 percent of Americans say they will definitely not vote for President Barack Obama when he seeks re-election in 2012 against one of several Republicans.

The poll is good news for pro-life advocates looking to replace the man who has become perhaps the most pro-abortion president in history, but the 38 percent figure is still 12 percent short of getting a majority of the nation to agree to replacing Obama next year. Still, some of the numbers in the poll suggest voters leaning against Obama or in the undecided category may ultimately vote against him because they are upset with the job he’s done, or not done, as president.

The survey found sixty percent (60%) of voters believe the country is on the wrong track, including a strong majority of Independents (61%) who hold this negative view of how things are going in the country.

Although Obama received a bump from the killing of terrorist mastermind Osama bin Ladin, voters appear to remain focused on economic and personal finance issues as the economy and jobs (28%) and government spending and the budget deficit (20%) were named as the top issues for the 2012 election. Though Obama’s job approval rating has received an expected bump to majority support (52%), strong majorities of voters disapprove of his job performance on the economy and jobs (57% disapprove) and on the federal budget and spending (61%). Obama enjoys only a four point advantage over Congressional Republicans on jobs (47%-43%) while Congressional Republicans enjoy a three point advantage over President Obama on controlling the deficit (47%-44%), the poll indicates.

The Obamacare law, which pro-life advocates oppose because of abortion funding loopholes and rationing concerns, is another problem for Obama.

“A plurality (49%) of voters favor repealing and replacing this law, including a majority of Republicans (70%) and a plurality (48%) of Independents,” the poll finds.

Ed Goeas, who conducted the poll, described some of the findings in a Politico opinion column.

“On a more qualitative level, the most common emotions that voters select to describe their views about the direction of the country are concerned (33%) and frustrated (21%). For many voters, their decision on re-electing a President is a referendum on both the direction of the country and their views about their personal situation,” he explained. “Right now, a significant amount of the electorate has a negative view on both of these metrics.”

“This data indicates there is a clear opportunity for the GOP Presidential nominee to run this playbook again. A majority (57%) of voters indicate they are extremely (18%) or very worried (39%) that the country will suffer another economic downturn in the near future that will have a negative impact on their family,” he added. “This economic anxiety and pessimism is a toxic combination for an incumbent President, and time is running out for the President to change that dynamic in his re-election bid.”

On Obamacare, Goeas notes: “The President will face real challenges even in attempting to use this law for base mobilization. As one would expect, majorities of Republicans (80%) and Independents (50%) believe that this law goes too far.”

“In sum, the last three electoral cycles have been “wave” elections with Democrats enjoying historic triumphs in 2006 and 2008 and with Republicans enjoying historic triumphs in 2010. The softness of the economy, the high level of voter anxiety, and the inability of the Obama administration to fix either of these problems could very well be leading to another historic election – the first defeat of a sitting Democratic incumbent President since 1980,” he said.