Polls Show McCain and Palin With 3-4 Percent Lead With Convention Bounce
by Steven Ertelt
LifeNews.com Editor
September7, 2008
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — National polls won’t truly assess the bounce John McCain and Sarah Palin received last week at the GOP convention until Monday, but the initial results look good. Two different polls now show the team with a 3-4 percentage point lead over pro-abortion candidates Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
A Zogby International poll conducted on Friday and Saturday shows the McCain-Palin ticket with a 49.7-45.9 percentage point lead over Obama and Biden. That gives the McCain ticket about a four percent lead with another 4.4 percent undecided.
When looking at the race as a head-to-head matchup featuring just McCain and Obama, McCain holds a 48.8-45.7 advantage with 5.5 percent undecided.
Pollster John Zogby says the poll shows the addition of the Alaska governor has helped McCain significantly and she has unified the core McCain constituencies behind him.
"Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorable numbers, and has unified the Republican Party," he said. "The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits."
"Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers," Zogby added.
However, Zogby noted that Palin is not helping McCain with women voters, who continued to favor Obama by a majority.
Meanwhile, the latest Gallup daily tracking poll released Sunday shows McCain moving ahead of Obama 48-45 percent among registered voters.
Another two percent of voters said they would vote for neither candidate, indicating they may be sitting out the election, and four percent are undecided.
These results are based on September 4-6 , and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has out-polled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.
Gallup said the full effect of the convention won’t be felt for the McCain-Palin ticket until Monday when all of the daily tracking will have been done after the convention.
"Tomorrow’s report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted after the conclusion of the convention," it indicated.
McCain’s 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain’s largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points.
A third poll released Sunday, the Rasmussen poll, showed McCain and Obama tied at 46 percent and 48 percent when leaners are included.
Like the Gallup survey, Rasmussen indicated the first poll to completely register the convention bounce will be the one released on Monday.
Rasmussen indicates 88 percent of Republicans back McCain while 81 percent of Democrats support Obama — meaning the GOP convention and the Palin pick solidified McCain’s support.
The Rasmussen poll shows McCain leading seven percent with men and Obama ahead six points among women — a drop from the 14 percent lead he had before the convention.
Looking back at the Zogby poll, McCain’s favorable rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success.
Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.
Nearly half – 49% – said they had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, while 50% they had a negative impression of him. Among independent voters, 47% gave him favorable marks, compared to 46% who said the same thing last week.
Among the vice presidential candidates, 54% said they now hold a favorable view of Palin, while 42% hold an unfavorable view. While 49% have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden, 47% hold an unfavorable view of him.
Just one week ago, 23% told Zogby that they did not know enough about Palin to make a judgment about whether they held a favorable or unfavorable view of her – but this most recent survey shows just 4% were unfamiliar with her.
That’s another indication that likely voters paid attention to the GOP convention this week, which won the highest television viewing numbers ever earned by an American political convention.
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