Census Numbers Make Obama 2012 Re-Election Tougher

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Dec 21, 2010   |   12:59PM   |   Washington, DC

The new census numbers the federal government released today will make it tougher for pro-abortion President Barack Obama to win a re-election bid in 2012.

That’s because states that went for Obama saw population declines that will result in fewer electoral votes and states that did not support Obama in 2008 saw their population increase and, as a result, the number of electoral votes they will allocate to a presidential candidate next time.

The census found the United States population bumped up from approximately 281 million in 2000 to 308,745,538 as of April 1. Regionally, the northeast grew 3.2 percent while the Midwest grew 3.9 percent, the South grew 14.3 percent and the West grew 13.8 percent — making it so states that typically go Republican experienced more growth than predominantly Democratic areas.

Texas was the big winner in the reapportionment analysis, picking up four new seats in the House and four key electoral votes that have typically gone to Republican candidates and did in 2008.

The biggest Democratic state, California, saw no increase in its House delegation and no increase in electoral votes for Obama going into 2012.

On the Republican side, Texas picked up four seats, Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, and Utah will gain one seat each while Louisiana loses one thanks to population declines following Hurricane Katrina and Missouri loses one as well. On the Democratic side, New York and Ohio lose two electoral votes each while the Obama-supporting states of Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania lose one and the pro-Obama states Nevada, and Washington gain one and Florida gains two.

Ultimately, states voting against Obama in 2012 gained six electoral votes while states supporting him in 2008 lost six — a total shift of 12 electoral votes. With what political observers see as a likely tightening of the electoral college map from the 365-173 vote victory Obama had over John McCain in 2008, the 12 votes could make a huge difference as Republicans combine those numbers with the retaking of states that went for pro-life President George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 but slipped to Obama in the last presidential election.

Compared to the close 2000 and 2004 elections, where Bush beat pro-abortion Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry, the extra 12 votes would have given him a much more comfortable margin of victory and would have helped avoid the recount issues that plagued Florida.

The eventual Republican candidate will have to focus on states Bush won, including Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia and North Carolina. Some of those states are population winners today and will give the winner more electoral votes than they would have in 2008 — putting more pressure on candidates to campaign there.

The loss of electoral votes also translate into a loss of seats in the House of Representatives, making it more likely pro-life Republicans can keep control of the House following the 2012 elections and can continue advancing the pro-life agenda.

Nevada was the biggest gainer in the population race with a 35.1 percent increase since 2000. The census figures showed Ohio population up 1.6% since 2000, Florida up 17.6%, Georgia up 18.3% and California up 10%. Michigan’s population declined .4 percent, the first state to show a decline since four states showed one in the 1990 census.