Republican candidates are expected to fare well tomorrow during the midterm Congressional and gubernatorial elections and both polling data and top political pundits are coming to the same conclusion.
The final USA Today/Gallup poll measuring the opinion of American voters in terms of the intention for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters.
The lead is so large that Gallup says it is “enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.”
“Gallup’s historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats,’ the polling firm said. :The Republicans’ current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup’s final survey’s margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.”
“It should be noted, however, that this year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory,” its analysis continues.
The results are from Gallup’s October 28-31 survey of ,539 likely voters and it found 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot — depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
“Republicans’ 15-point lead among likely voters contrasts with their 4-point lead, 48% to 44%, among registered voters, highlighting the importance of higher GOP turnout to the election outcome,’ Gallup notes about the comparative enthusiasm of voters on both sides of the political divide.
Meanwhile, Scott Rasmussen, the respected national poll, writes in the Wall Street Journal that Republicans will easily win the House of Representatives.
“Democrats face massive losses in tomorrow’s midterm election. Based upon our generic ballot polling and an analysis of individual races, we project that Nancy Pelosi’s party will likely lose 55 or more seats in the House, putting the GOP firmly in the majority,” he says.
“Republicans will also win at least 25 of the 37 Senate elections. While the most likely outcome is that Republicans end up with 48 or 49 Senate seats, Democrats will need to win close races in West Virginia, Washington and California to protect their majority,” Rasmussen says about the Senate.
Rasmussen indicates Republican candidates, which include key pro-life advocates, are doing well in gubernatorial contests.
“There will also be a lot more Republican governors in office come January. It looks like six heartland states stretching from Pennsylvania to Iowa will trade a Democratic governor for a Republican one,” he writes. “A common theme in all the races is that white, working-class Democrats who tended to vote for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in 2008 are prepared to vote for Republicans.”
The election and polling analysis web site Real Clear Politics projects 12 governorships are either likely to be picked up by the GOP or leaning in Republicans’ favor with only 5 in the Democratic column.
John Kasich appears likely to pick up a pro-life win in Ohio replacing pro-abortion Tom Strickland, Florida pro-life candidate Rick Scott will likely win there and replace pro-abortion Charlie Crist, and pro-life former governor Terry Bandstand will pick up a victory over pro-abortion Chet Culver.
Jan Brewer will stay on it appears as the pro-life governor in Arizona, pro-life Nathan Deal is expected to win in Georgia, pro-life Tom Corbett should win in Pennsylvania, pro-life Nikki Haley should win in South Carolina, pro-life Gov. Rick Perry will win in Texas, pro-life Susana Martinez should win in New Mexico, and pro-life Scott Walker is expected to win in Wisconsin.
Closer races include Colorado, where pro-life candidate Tom Tancredo may come up short in a race where the Republican candidate’s campaign died as a result of scandals and problems. Tom Emmer is in a close battle in Minnesota against pro-abortion Mary Dayton, and pro-life Brian Dubie may come up short in Vermont.
Matthew Boyle of the Daily Caller explains how the gubernatorial victories will help Republicans when it comes to the state legislature.
“The party with the governorship in each state has a large advantage when redrawing congressional district lines, so the party that picks up each gubernatorial race will have a big influence on the congressional landscape for the next decade,” he said.
That is important for pro-life advocates when it comes to the state legislature and making more gains in terms of stopping abortions via state legislation. Some states, like Michigan, Missouri, and South Carolina have been able to reduce abortions by as much as 50 percent or more via state legislation designed to inform women and direct them to alternatives.