Prediction: Republicans Will Pick Up 9 Seats in Senate for 50-50 Split

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Nov 1, 2010   |   11:21AM   | is today predicting that Republicans will pick up nine seats in the Senate for a 50-50 split of the upper chamber of Congress.

Based on poling data, polling trends and the movement and momentum in the closing week of the campaigns, it appears the Senate will have a historic tie, which pro-abortion Vice President Joe Biden will be able to break.

GOP candidates will easily pick up seats in four states (Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, Wisconsin) and will win closer election victories in five more (Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Washington). They will also hold Alaska.

They will relinquish the ability to gain control of the Senate from their pro-abortion counterparts because they will fail to win in West Virginia and California.

Arkansas, Indiana and North Dakota are the three Senate seats where there is no question pro-life advocates will pick up votes. In Arkansas, John Boozman will easily defeat pro-abortion Blanche Lincoln, pro-life advocate Dan Coats will return to the Senate in Indiana, and North Dakota will see pro-life John Hoeven take over another pro-abortion seat.

Republicans will also retain seats in contests that were thought to be more competitive earlier in the year in Ohio (Bob Portman wins easily), Florida (Marco Rubio will represent pro-life Hispanics nationwide), Kentucky (Rand Paul, the son of Ron Paul, heads to the Senate), and New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte is one of many pro-life women who will see victory).

Missouri and Wisconsin are also two races thought to be more competitive, but where pro-life GOP candidates are cruising to victory.

In Missouri, pro-life advocate Roy Blunt will defeat Emily’s List darling Robin Carnahan and, in Wisconsin, pro-life champion Ron Johnson will topple longtime pro-abortion Sen. Russ Feingold.

On the other side of the equation, Republicans will not likely win in Connecticut or Delaware (where Christine O’Donnell has made so many gaffes she won’t be able to win but will finish closer than some predict). Maryland, New York and Oregon are also out of reach for GOP candidates.

That brings us to the competitive races this cycle, determined as toss-ups by most political pundits:

Alaska – Whether pro-life Joe Miller or pro-abortion Lisa Murkowski wins, either candidate will caucus with Republicans for control of the Senate. A new PPP poll has Miller ahead by 10 percent and, with the difficulties of Murkowski waging a write-in campaign and the last-minute media attacks on Miller, we predict a Miller victory.

California – Carly Fiorina gave the pro-life movement its best hope ever of knocking off Barbara Boxer, the leader of the pro-abortion forces in the Senate. But she hasn’t led in a poll since September and Boxer was able to bash Fiorina on the issue of abortion enough to rally her base in a state that is totally out of sync with the rest of the nation on the issue of abortion. Expect Boxer to win by about four percent.

Colorado – Colorado should have been one of the states like Wisconsin or Missouri where the Republican candidate cruised to a fairly easy election victory. But Ken Buck gave his opponents just enough fodder with curious statements on the campaign trail that he’s seen a barrage of ads in what has become one of the most expensive Senate races in the country. In a state where Obama has gone from holding his Democratic coronation complete with Greek columns in 2008 to see his unfavorables top his favorables by 15 percent and his health care plan opposed by another net 15 percent, Buck should have had an easier time winning than the 2-4 percent margin he’ll get on election night.

Illinois – Unlike other states with pro-life candidates to rally around to score a Republican control of the Senate, Mark Kirk is an abortion advocate. Ironically, his victory makes it easier for pro-life advocates to win the Senate or at least have enough numbers to make upholding filibusters easier against pro-abortion judicial nominees and legislation. Expect Kirk to win by 3-5 percent when the votes are tallied and pick up the seat formerly held by Obama himself.

Nevada – Sharron Angle, in spite of herself, will win a race that will go down as the biggest upset of Election Day in toppling pro-abortion Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid. This will be the number one story tomorrow as Democrats will likely keep the Senate but have to figure out who will become the next leader of the party in Reid’s absence. For the pro-life movement, it’s a two-fold victory of getting another pro-life woman in the Senate and defeating someone who formerly argued for a human life amendment to the Constitution but watered down his pro-life views so much that he ushered in the biggest expansion of abortion funding since Roe via the ObamaCare bill.

Pennsylvania – Pat Toomey will get a bit of redemption on Tuesday night as he should have been in the Senate before if not for pro-abortion Arlen Specter. Now the respected pro-life advocate will represent the Keystone State and become one of the top spokesman on pro-life issues when confronting the Democrats. This will be a big loss for Obama since he put so much stock in Joe Sestak after the primary election debacle that saw him try to coerce him out of the race with a cushy appointment. Pennsylvania pro-lifers will have a big day Tuesday topped by this victory.

Washington – This is one of the more difficult tossup races to predict, but pro-life Dino Rossi is going to make the third time for a bid for statewide office a charm. He has closed well against pro-abortion Sen. Patty Murray and the “mom in tennis shoes” better get her kicks on because she’s going to be walking back to the Left Coast. Rossi may not emerge as an outspoken pro-life leader (we hope to be proven wrong) but he will be a consistent pro-life vote in a state that doesn’t embrace the pro-life values the rest of the country shares.

West Virginia – John Raese had this race in the bag until Joe Manchin decided he didn’t like pro-abortion ObamaCare after all. If Manchin wins, and it appears he will, there will be three self-proclaimed pro-life Democrats in the Senate — and both Bob Casey in Pennsylvania and Ben Nelson of Nebraska have folded on key votes. The question will be whether Manchin will fold as well or will he stand firm on abortion and pro-abortion judicial nominees.

With a split of the Senate and Biden breaking the tying vote, Republicans will not be able to control the agenda in committee and on the Senate floor. However, they will be in an excellent position to stop Obama’s continued expansion of abortion and abortion funding.

They will also be primed to take on the next Supreme Court nominee, assuming Obama gets one more chance to name a high court justice between now and 2012. The newer Republicans are mostly stalwart pro-life conservatives who will hopefully challenge some of the moderate Republicans like Dick Lugar, Lindsey Graham and likely Sen-elect Mark Kirk to stand their ground on a filibuster or vote no.