Obama Disapproval May Cause Freshman Democrats to Lose House to GOP
by Steven Ertelt
October 6, 2010
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — In the battle for control of the House of Representatives, the attitude Americans have towards pro-abortion President Barack Obama will play a large role in determining whether Republicans have a chance at recapturing the chamber.
Whether Americans decide to keep some of the freshman Democrats elected with Obama in 2008 is an indicator of sorts as to how election night will go down.
A new poll commissioned by The Hill, a prominent Congressional newspaper, and Americas Natural Gas Alliance find pro-life Republican candidates lead in 11 of 12 hotly contested races against mostly pro-abortion Democrats — and the twelfth race is tied.
This is a particularly volatile set of districts, Democratic pollster Mark Penn told the newspaper. Overall, we see a strong Republican trend in these districts, but given where these numbers are, the races haven’t broken yet.
Republicans need to win 39 seats in the House to wrest control from pro-abortion Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other pro-abortion leaders who have controlled the chamber’s agenda.
The leads in the 11 races give the GOP a leg up, but some of the numbers provide a silver lining for Democrats.
The Hill poll found none of the GOP challengers have reached the crucial 50 percent mark and half of the candidates have small leads within the margin of error.
The polling numbers show why Republicans have a lead in those races — Obama receives just a 42-55 job approval across the districts and does worse with independents, at a 40-56 percent disapproval mark.
The survey found 69% of respondents said their views of Obama were an important or very important determining factor in determining their vote for Congress.
Ed Morrissey, of the conservative Hot Air blog, says the poll also shows the pro-abortion ObamaCare bill playing a big role.
"In these key swing Democratic districts, repealing ObamaCare is wildly popular at 56/32 — with 23% of all Democrats supporting repeal. Thats probably why only 68% of Democrats say they are passionate about voting in four weeks, while 83% of Republicans feel that passion," he noted.
"In very bad news for Democrats in these districts, only 56% of those 36 years of age and younger feel passionate, while 69% of the 37-54 year-old voters feel passionate and 78% of the 55+ voters. Republicans lead the generic ballot in all three age groups and overall at 45/39, but their biggest lead comes from middle-aged voters, 48/37," Morrissey said.
However, Morrissey warned, "It seems as though the GOP has a good chance at a clean sweep of these races, but its not over yet and no one has won anything until the polls close."
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