Pollster Says Republican Chances of Winning House Look Good, Senate Split
by Steven Ertelt
September 2, 2010
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — If the most recent polls, voter turnout and analysis of momentum in the November midterm elections are any indication, one pollster says Republicans have a good chance at winning the House and coming close to a 50-50 split in the Senate. That would bode well for the pro-life community as it attempts to stop the Obama abortion agenda.
One of the biggest signs of a Republican landslide came in the new Gallup poll showing Republicans have a 10% advantage over Democrats in the general Congressional ballot — the largest advantage in history.
A new poll from Kaiser finds support for the pro-abortion ObamaCare plan at its lowest levels in its polling, taking away a key issue Democrats hoped to use to motivate their base.
And a new study circulating among top Republicans shows that in 15 of 16 races this year with closed party primaries, Republicans turned out more voters than Democrats — a possible prediction of the turnout in November. Some 15.5 million Republican votes have been cast this year, compared to nearly 12.1 million Democratic votes.
Larry Sabato, a Virginia college professor known as one of the best election forecasters in the nation, tells CQ he thinks Republicans can pick up the House.
"Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net," he said. "This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama’s Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot."
"If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today," Sabato noted.
Meanwhile, in the Senate, Sabato believes the GOP will do better than his current prediction of gaining seven seats.
"Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react)," he told CQ.
"GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover," he continued.
While most of the focus is on Congress, Sabato also says he expects Republicans to pick up 6-8 governorships, enhancing pro-life legislative efforts on the state level.
"This boon to the GOP for redistricting will be enhanced by a gain of perhaps 300 to 500 seats in the state legislatures, and the addition of Republican control in 8 to 12 legislative chambers around the country," he said.
The Cook Political Report, a newsletter put out by another campaign guru Charlie Cook, also has good news for Republicans.
It now lists 68 Democratic House seats as facing "substantial risk" of changing hands, an increase form the 62 seats it listed in July and 50 in June. This week, the Cook list could top 70 seats while Republicans see just 10 seats they could potentially lose to Democrats, most of whom are pro-abortion.
Rep. Chris Van Hollen, a pro-abortion Maryland Democrat, says he is hopeful his party can hang on to the House and cites a big money advantage over his Republican counterparts. He estimates Democrats have $17 million more to spend for their candidates than Republicans and says some GOP challengers have much less money than the incumbents they hope to defeat.
Democrats are also hoping for support from unions and the AFL-CIO has pledged to sink $40 million into the elections in the coming weeks.
But Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, tells The Hill that the Tea Party movement is helping unify and motivate Republican voters.
Its a unifying force for many Republican voters, and its generating excitement for voters who would normally be midterm drop-offs, Jensen said. In particular, we’re also seeing a lack of excitement among moderate Democrats. They are very important to Democrats in any election, yet they’re one of the least enthusiastic groups this year.
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