Gallup Poll Shows Republicans Lead Election 2010 by Unprecedented 10 Points

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Aug 31, 2010   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

Gallup Poll Shows Republicans Lead Election 2010 by Unprecedented 10 Points

by Steven Ertelt Editor
August 31
, 2010

Washington, DC ( — When pro-life Republicans took over Congress from their pro-abortion Democratic rivals in November 1994, the Gallup poll asked Americans in July whether they planned to vote for their Republican or Democratic candidate for Congress. This year, GOP candidates lead by an unprecedented 10 percent.

In 1994, Republicans led by a 49-44 percentage point margin.

Now, a new Gallup poll released on Monday shows Republicans ahead of Democrats by a 51-41 percent mark — up from 7 percent in early August (50-43%) and up from 5 percent in late July (49-44%).

"The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress,’ the polling firm noted. "This marks the fifth week in a row in which Republicans have held an advantage over Democrats — one that has ranged between 3 and 10 points."

"The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994," Gallup noted.

Not only do Republicans lead in the generic party matchup, but Republican voters, who are mostly pro-life, show much more enthusiasm than their pro-abortion Democratic counterparts.

Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be "very" enthusiastic about voting, and now hold — by one point — the largest such advantage of the year.

The new Gallup poll shows 50 percent of Republican voters are very enthusiastic about voting this November while 28 percent of independents and just 25 percent of Democrats say the same thing.

"Republicans usually turn out in higher numbers in midterm elections than do Democrats, and Gallup’s likely voter modeling in the final weeks of an election typically reflects a larger GOP advantage than is evident among registered voters. The wide enthusiasm gaps in the GOP’s favor so far this year certainly suggest that this scenario may well play itself out again this November," Gallup notes.

For the pro-life movement, that means many of the competitive House and Senate elections pitting pro-life Republican versus pro-abortion Democratic candidates are likely to move in the pro-life direction.

Should Republicans capture either the House or Senate, or both, the election victory would give pro-life advocates the opportunity to mitigate parts, or all, of President Barack Obama’s pro-abortion agenda until 2012 when Americans have the opportunity to elect a pro-life president to replace him.

Reacting to the new poll, pro-life House Minority Leader John Boehner tried to temper expectations so GOP voters don’t become complacent.

He said Republicans still have an "uphill climb" to win back either chamber of Congress.

"We’ve got real opportunity," Boehner said during an appearance on the conservative Sean Hannity radio show.

"I can tell you that the American people want change, and they want it now," Boehner said, noting that "polls don’t win elections," and that it takes voters showing up to make a difference.


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