California Senate Race Tied, New Poll Shows as Boxer Loses Lead to Fiorina

State   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Aug 25, 2010   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

California Senate Race Tied, New Poll Shows as Boxer Loses Lead to Fiorina

by Steven Ertelt Editor
August 25
, 2010

Sacramento, CA ( — After two polls showing her with a lead, Rasmussen Reports indicates pro-abortion California senator Barbara Boxer is now essentially tied with pro-life candidate Carly Fiorina. The polling firm is now moving the state from its "leans Democratic" to a toss-up category because of the new results.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in California shows Boxer with 44% support, while Fiorina picks up 43% of the vote.

Five percent (5%) like another candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

Earlier this month, Boxer held a five-point lead, 45% to 40%, and she was ahead 49% to 42% in July. Since February, Boxer’s support has ranged from 42% to 49%. In those same surveys, Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, has earned 38% to 43% of the vote.

When leaners are included in the new totals, Boxer moves ahead by five points – 49% to 44%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of those who support Fiorina say they are already certain how they will vote in November. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Boxer’s supporters say the same, meaning more Boxer backers are less sure they will vote for her in November.

Fiorina earns 89% support from Republican voters, while 77% of Democrats favor Boxer. Voters not affiliated with either party give a modest edge to the pro-abortion stalwart.

A CBS 5 KPIX-TV poll earlier this month found Fiorina leading Boxer 47-42 percent with the rest undecided or favoring a minor party candidate.

Just hours after the polling results were released, the Boxer campaign dropped a new 15-second Internet ad blasting Fiorina on abortion — an issus Boxer’s people believe will help her in a state that does not follow the rest of the nation in opposing abortion.

The ad bashes Fiorina for saying, “I absolutely would vote to overturn Roe v. Wade if the opportunity presented itself" in a KTKZ – AM interview in January. It highlights several endorsements Fiorina has received from pro-life groups and pro-life leaders.

That poll showed Fiorina also receives 73 percent of the pro-life vote while Boxer, the pro-abortion champion in the Senate, gets 19 percent. Fiorina picks off 28 percent of pro-abortion voters while Boxer has the backing of 59 percent.

At the time, Conservative writer Ed Morrissey of HotAir said pro-life advocates should exercise caution about the latest numbers.

"Survey USA’s a respected pollster but they’re the only ones to show Fiorina with a lead this year. Their last poll had her up two points and a Pajamas Media poll taken in June had the race even, but literally everyone else — including Rasmussen — has Boxer ahead by anywhere from five to nine points," he notes.

Morrissey continues: "So consider these new numbers not so much an answer as a question: Just an outlier, or a leading indicator of a trend in the race? Rasmussen’s last poll did show Fiorina closing in, but only ever so slightly (a two-point gain). Keep this on your radar screen, then, with an eye to confirmation via the next round of polls. Just a little tremor happening in California, or is this the Big One?"


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