Pollster: 10-13 Senate Races Will Decide Control of Senate After 2010 Elections
by Steven Ertelt
LifeNews.com Editor
July 6, 2010
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — A prominent pollster has released his analysis of the 2010 election landscape as far as the U.S. Senate is concerned and he says 10-13 races will decide whether Democrats or Republicans have control over the chamber. Scott Rasmussen says GOP candidates need almost a full sweep to have control.
Currently, Rasmussen projects Democrats will have at least 49 of the 50 Senate seats when combining returning senators not up for re-election with those seats he expects Democrats to hold.
Republicans are projected to hold 41 seats with returning lawmakers and races they’re likely to win.
That leaves 10 tossup races (and three of the projected seats that lean towards one party or the other) that will determine whether pro-abortion Democrats or pro-life Republicans run the Senate.
"Democrats can probably count on having at least 49 Senate seats after Election Day, while Republicans will hold a minimum of 41. In play, however, are 10 Toss-Up races that are likely to be the major storyline of Election 2010," Rasmussen says.
Republicans are poised to pick up Democratic-held Senate seats in four states—Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana and North Dakota.
Arkansas’ Blanche Lincoln is the only incumbent senator currently projected to lose a seat and three more GOP pickups include open-seat races following retirements by Democratic incumbents. Democrats are not currently expected to pick up any Republican seats, with one exception.
Six of the 10 toss-up states are currently Democratic seats, while four are held by the GOP, Rasmussen explains.
"Among the six Democratic seats in the toss-up category, three are open seat races (Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania), and the Republicans have a slight edge in the most recent polling for each of those seats," he said. "As for Democratic incumbents in the toss-up category, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada finds himself trailing in the latest polling; Patty Murray of Washington is tied, and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin holds a very slight edge over a little-known opponent."
Richard Burr of North Carolina is the only Republican incumbent in the Rasmussen toss-up category. He has led the race for most of the year but now finds himself tied with the winner of a Democratic primary runoff.
Other Republican seats in play at the moment are in Florida, Missouri and Ohio. In Florida, Republican Marco Rubio is tied with former Republican Charlie Crist. The GOP candidates have slight leads in Missouri and Ohio, Rasmussen said.
"Put it all together, and Republicans are slightly ahead in six of the 10 Toss-up states," Rasmussen concludes. "Three of the races are tied, and the Democratic candidate has the lead in one. This suggests that if the election were held today, the GOP would be favored to pick up a few more than the four seats already moving in their direction."
Rasmussen says three other seats are in the leaning category — including the Republican-held seats of Kentucky and New Hampshire.
The third is the California Senate seat of pro-abortion Barbara Boxer. She currently leads pro-life candidate Carly Fiorina 48-43 percent and, should Fiorina win, Rasmussen’s projection of 49 seats for Democrats before the toss-up races is lowered to 48, giving pro-life advocates a better chance of controlling the Senate.
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