Analysts Say Pro-Abortion Democrats Could Lose Senate After 2010 Elections

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Feb 1, 2010   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

Analysts Say Pro-Abortion Democrats Could Lose Senate After 2010 Elections

by Steven Ertelt Editor
February 1
, 2010

Washington, DC ( — Political analysts looking ahead to the 2010 mid-term elections have said for months that there is an outside chance pro-abortion Democrats may lose their control of the House. Now, top experts suggest there is a remote possibility they could lose their hold on the Senate as well.

Removing pro-abortion stalwarts like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Leader Harry Reid from power would be a game-changer for the pro-life movement.

The two have worked overtime for a government-run health care bill that would force taxpayers to finance hundreds of thousands of abortions and present other concerns.

Pelosi has prevented the House from voting on some pro-life amendments and neither have allowed hearings or floor votes on any pro-life bills to limit abortions.

The addition alone of more pro-life lawmakers in either body — without changing control of the House or Senate — helps the pro-life legislative cause. But capturing either chamber would change the face of abortion politics on Capitol Hill.

In a column on Town Hall, conservative writer Jillian Bandes suggests the latest polling data and the way so many Americans are upset at pro-abortion President Barack Obama and Congress over the pro-abortion health care bill has shifted public opinion enough that winning control of the Senate is now possible.

"Recent shifts in a few key Senate races have made Republican gains more likely. Combine that with momentum from Scott Brown’s election in Massachusetts and it seems as though even the strict toss-up races have better prospects of turning red. All in all, it would still be an uphill battle for Republicans to take the Senate. But it’s no longer impossible," she writes.

Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, and someone who is widely considered a top handicapper of Congressional elections, agrees.

“A few months ago, even GOP leaders said that taking over the Senate was a pipe dream, and it is still not probable. But as some independents sour on the Democratic Party, the possibility for a GOP majority can no longer be dismissed out of hand,” he writes.

“In fact, it is likely that the Republicans will gain at least 3 to 5 Senate seats in November,” said Sabato. “Even more startling, in the aftermath of the Massachusetts special election, Republicans would do even better if the general election were being held today.”

Bandes points out that Republicans have eighteen seats to defend this cycle and Democrats have sixteen. Republicans need to maintain all of their seats and “flip” five of the Democratic seats to regain the majority.

"And what do you know – five Democratically-held seats are looking better and better for Republicans to take. But none of the Republican seats are looking better for the Democrats," she writes.

Republicans, who are mostly pro-life, have been helped in places like North Dakota, Delaware, Nevada, Arkansas, and Pennsylvania where pro-abortion Democratic senators have either retired or have fallen on hard times.

Although Delaware has pro-abortion Republican Mike Castle as the likely nominee, Pennsylvania sees pro-life advocate Pat Toomey looking much better than expected.

Bandes is realistic about the chances of winning the Senate — which had pro-abortion Democrats with a filibuster-proof majority until Scott Brown won in Massachusetts.

"Along with the polling and retirements, the political mood is definitively shifted, with markers for GOP enthusiasm outweighing their opponents," Bandes writes. "This is, of course, an extremely optimistic scenario. But the bigger issue is that the scenario is worth mentioning, when it was an utter impossibility until even last month."

Eric Herzik, chair of the Department of Political Science University of Nevada, Reno, says that it’s possible that even Reid, could be defeated.

“If Harry Reid goes down, if Mary Landreiu goes down, and Bill Nelson, [Republicans] have a good chance [to take back the majority]. They have to hold everything, win all the close ones, and its possible,” said Herzik.

Bandes concludes, "Analyst Charlie Cook said that Republicans hold a 15-point lead – 50 percent to 35 percent – in voters who are most likely to turn out in November. That sentiment is clearly illustrated in the election of Scott Brown."

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