Pro-Abortion Health Care Could Cost Democrats Control of House in 2010 Election

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Dec 30, 2009   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

Pro-Abortion Health Care Could Cost Democrats Control of House in 2010 Election

by Steven Ertelt Editor
December 30
, 2009

Washington, DC ( — With less than 48 hours before the 2010 calendar year begins and jut 11 months until the 2010 Congressional elections, prognosticators are already firing off predictions on what will happen.

Most handicappers suggest Republicans will pick up seats in Congress because of the pro-abortion health care bill and Americans’ disapproval of the Obama presidency.

But Reuters writer James Pethokoukis suggests it could cost Democrats control of the House entirely.

Pethokoukis points to modern history as a predictor of things to come.

"American politics has a regular ebb and flow. In 13 of the past 15 midterm elections going back to 1950, the party in control of the White House has lost an average of 22 seats in the House. In 10 of the past 15 midterms the party running the Senate has lost an average of three seats," he said.

More recent political results show a change coming with pro-life Republicans winning gubernatorial races in the off-year elections in Virginia, replacing a pro-abortion Democrat, and in New Jersey.

The analyst also notes that 47 Democratic seats in Congress are in districts won by Republican presidential candidate John McCain in 2008 and are poised for a party switch.

"And voters in those districts may be especially unhappy with a Democratic legislative agenda that causes many Americans mixed feelings," he says. "A RealClearPolitics aggregation of polling data shows Americans disapprove of healthcare reform by a 51-38 margin."

Pethokoukis also notes Democrats have more seats to defend and republican voters are more energized thanks to their opposition to Obama and the health care bill.

Ed Morrissey, a pro-life Hot Air blogger suggests that Republicans recapturing the House is not out of the question but not necessarily likely.

"I’d put a couple of big caveats on this. First, in order for Pelosi to lose the House, Democrats have to lose 40 seats next November. That’s certainly not out of range, but it’s not an easy task. Normally one sees that kind of realignment only once in a generation, and sometimes not that many times," he said. "We have already had two in 12 years (1994 and 2006). We usually see incumbents holding onto their seats much more than losing them, and Democratic incumbents will still have the technical advantages in 2010."

Morrissey says Republicans will need to coordinate a national level campaign if they want to be successful in throwing out the pro-abortion Democrats from leading the House.

"Granted, the radical nature of the Democratic agenda makes the electorate more amenable to a big shift. However, in both 1994 and 2006, the opposition party ran a coordinated national campaign to effect that kind of turnover," he says.

Even if Democrats manage to hang on to the House, Morrissey predicts a more open process — one that could pave the way for abortion limits.

"If Democrats manage to hang onto a slim majority, the big question will be whether Pelosi hangs onto the gavel. She more than anyone else has authored the radical push from Democrats and the go-it-alone attitude that has marginalized them and angered the moderates," he writes.

"I’d bet that if Democrats wind up with a majority of five seats or less, Pelosi gets canned in favor of Steny Hoyer and a more open model of working with Republicans to spread the responsibility in the 112th Congress. It would be better to have a Republican in that position instead, of course," he concludes.

While not all Republicans are pro-life and not all Democrats are pro-abortion, the House is currently controlled by pro-abortion Democrats who, in some cases, have refused to allow votes to stop abortion funding.

The current GOP leadership in the House is comprised of pro-life lawmakers.

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