Another Election Expert Predicts Massive Pro-Life Gains in 2010 Election Cycle
by Steven Ertelt
September 4, 2009
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — Another elections expert is predicting massive gains for the pro-life movement in the 2010 election cycle. This time it is Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political science professor frequently cited in the mainstream media for his election expertise.
Sabato has correctly forecasted other midterm election results, including the 2006 elections where he was one off of the Democratic gains that year.
The professor has correctly predicted the winners of last five presidential contests more than two months before Election Day with an average margin of error of one percentage point.
Given his track record, political observers are already talking about his latest election analysis, released today.
"It now appears that Republicans will make above-average gains in the U.S. House of at least 23 seats," he explains, whereas the average pickup of the party out of power in a midterm election is 17 seats.
While there are pro-abortion Republicans and pro-life Democrats, most Republicans in Congress are pro-life and most Democrats back abortion. The Democrats who control both the House and Senate now strongly support abortion and have prevented votes on some pro-life amendments to limit abortion funding.
While pro-life advocates have little chance of re-capturing the Senate (though they will likely pick up a couple of seats), there is a small chance Republicans could retake the House if pro-abortion President Barack Obama’s numbers sink further, Sabato explains.
"Under what might be considered a worst case scenario for Democrats, if President Obamas approval rating sinks into the low 40s next year, which would produce a net approval rating of around -10, and Republicans take a 5 point lead on the generic ballot, the GOP would still be expected to gain only 4 seats in the Senate," he professor writes.
"However, such a scenario would put Republicans in position to come very close to regaining control of the House with an expected pickup of 41 seats," he says.
Even if Obama’s numbers go back up next year, Sabato predicts at least some gains for pro-life advocates.
"On the other hand, if the Presidents approval rating rebounds into the mid 60s, producing a net approval rating of around +30, and Democrats have a 10 point lead on the generic ballot, the GOP would be expected to lose one seat in the Senate and gain only 15 seats in the House," he said.
Using the current polling numbers for Obama and both parties, Sabato predicts a gain of one seat in the Senate and 23 seats in the House.
With amendments to stop abortion funding in the health care bill losing by one vote margins in congressional committees in both the House and Senate, every seat pro-life advocates pick up is another they can use to stop Obama’s pro-abortion agenda.
Sign Up for Free Pro-Life News From LifeNews.com
Daily Pro-Life News Report Twice-Weekly Pro-Life
News Report Receive a free daily email report from LifeNews.com with the latest pro-life news stories on abortion, euthanasia and stem cell research. Sign up here. Receive a free twice-weekly email report with the latest pro-life news headlines on abortion, euthanasia and stem cell research. Sign up here.