More Political Analysts Predict Pro-Life Gains in Congress in 2010 Elections
by Steven Ertelt
August 31, 2009
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — Advancing a pro-abortion health care bill that could lead to rationing medical care and having a pro-abortion president who is making taxpayers fund abortions appears to come at a cost for the abortion advocates who lead Congress. More political analysts are predicting pro-life gains after the 2010 elections.
As LifeNews.com already noted, top political analyst Charlie Cook already highlighted how the "situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats" thanks to the health care situation.
Cook predicted that Democrats could lose as many as 20 seats in the House, and with most Democrats taking a pro-abortion position and most Republicans pro-life, that’s good news for the pro-life movement.
Now, Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst respected on both sides of the aisle for his statistical analysis says he thinks Republicans will win as many as 20 to 50 seats next election.
He gives the GOP a 25-33 percent chance of winning the 40 seats necessary to retake control of the House, which would put the chamber in pro-life hands and stop the advance of abortion that Republicans, and pro-life Democrats, can’t currently contain.
A lot of Democratic freshmen and sophomores will be running in a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008 and some will adapt to it, but a lot of others will inevitably freak out and end up losing, Silver told Politico.
Complacency is another factor: We have volunteers who worked really hard in 2006 and in 2008 for Obama but its less compelling [for them] to preserve the majority," he explained.
The pro-life movement seems likely to at least win back some of the seats lost during the 2006 and 2008 elections, because the party not in power normally gains seats during the mid-year elections — and it has done so in 10 of the last 12 occasions.
Voter intensity also favors pro-life advocates, as they are more upset by the pro-abortion record of Obama and his Congressional allies than abortion backers are pleased by him.
Stuart Rothenberg, another Congressional handicapper, also predicts gains for pro-life lawmakers in the next election cycle.
However, he tempers his prediction by saying that if Democrats approve a health care bill Americans can support or if the economy makes a rebound next year, then expected gains could be reversed.
To have another wholesale sea change bigger than last years and almost as big as the two years combined is asking a lot. Its not impossible, but you have to think thats quite a challenge for the Republicans, he says.
No matter what the future holds in the political scene, pro-life groups will be working overtime to replace pro-abortion lawmakers who are holding seats in districts that have a majority of pro-life voters.
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