Electoral College Projection Shows Likely Win for Pro-Abortion Barack Obama
by Steven Ertelt
November 4, 2008
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — After accurately predicting the electoral college outcome in 2004, LifeNews.com, in our final analysis of the 2008 presidential election, predicts pro-abortion candidate Barack Obama will win a narrow victory over John McCain. By our projection, Obama will capture 291 electoral votes to 247 for McCain.
Ultimately, McCain will win most of the battleground states, but likely losses in Pennsylvania and Virginia will prevent him from becoming the next president and put the pro-life community in a difficult position for four years.
Should McCain somehow top Obama in those two states, he can earn a 281 to 257 electoral college win, but the polls appear to show him too far down to come back.
When conducting an electoral college analysis there is a temptation to over-reach and assign states to the candidate you favor when the polling data favors the other candidate.
In this case, while it appears McCain could mount a comeback with a strong turnout from pro-life voters in a handful of battleground states and last-minute momentum hes developed over the course of the last two weeks, McCain has to run the table of battleground states. Contrary to projections from the mainstream media and political pundits, McCain will win most of the tossup states but not enough to become the next president.
Both presidential candidates have a base of support in states that are not really contested anymore in presidential races.
Obama will safely win California, Oregon and Washington as well as Illinois, Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and the District of Columbia.
McCain has the traditionally Republican states of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho and Alaska.
The second-tier of states includes those that both sides hoped they would be able to pick off from the columns they’ve occupied in the last two elections:
Georgia – Obama hoped to win Georgia with an increased turnout from black voters, but this historically conservative state has backed McCain in all but one poll during the election. The Obama campaign put money here late but that appears to have been wasted. McCain wins here.
Michigan – Both campaigns pulled out of Michigan early and brought the campaign almost to a tie in September. McCain has hoped to pick up the state because of its economic woes, but when the national economy went sour in October that prevented him from having any hope here. Obama win.
Minnesota – The McCain team hoped to pick up Minnesota and went as far as holding the Republican convention there — which put the campaign in good shape shortly afterwards. However, the progressive state went back to the Obama side of the equation afterwards. McCain has closed the gap in recent days after Obama pulled out to a double digit lead but it appears to be too little, too late. Obama win.
New Hampshire — The state that always seemed to love McCain during the Republican primaries has failed him in the general election. Too many Massachusetts voters have moved here and may put the state out of reach for all but elections where the GOP has a national advantage. In close elections, New Hampshire may be too far gone. Obama state,
Wisconsin – The Badger state was a much closer race in the last two elections and it will likely return to its typical battleground self next time around. When the McCain campaign decided to make Pennsylvania its last stand, Wisconsin automatically went to Obama.
That leads to the battleground states that have been the most hotly contested:
Arizona – Obama put some last-minute money into McCains home state to try to add insult to injury in a supposed landslide election victory, but it won’t pay off. Obama has never lead here and won’t win on election day. McCain win.
Colorado – The landscape in Colorado has changed fro the days of it serving as a reliably Republican western state. The influx of new voters from California and the east coast along with a torrent of younger voters has turned it into a Democratic hotbed. Obama recognized this and held his convention in Denver. The race has been close all year but McCain hasn’t held a lead since the Fall months. Advantage Obama.
Florida – McCain had an advantage in Florida for most of the campaign until the nations economic woes turned the tide in Obamas favor. The most recent poll here gives McCain his first lead in weeks and early indications are that early voting has moved in is favor. The last-minute momentum appears to be giving McCain the advantage again and Florida is one state where Obama has been unable to close. Jewish voters may not go for Obama as strongly as they normally do for Democrats and that will help McCain carry the state.
Indiana – That the Hoosier state is a battleground is trouble for McCain but not surprising given the expected large black turnout in the northwest corner of the state near Chicago and Indianapolis proper. Obama made a good comeback here but McCain appears to have brought the state back into the red column.
Iowa – This swing state was never really much of a battleground in part because of McCains position on ethanol subsidies. Neither campaign spent much time here as it was assumed Obama would win. The McCain team says the state is narrowing but polling data shows no evidence other than a runaway Obama victory.
Missouri – The traditional battleground state is also a conservative one with Democrats who are more like Republicans on social issues. Obama could win if he gets a particularly large turnout from black voters in St. Louis and Kansas City, but the state that polls have shown is one of the most pro-life in the country appears to be moving back into the McCain column and the late-breaking momentum will give McCain a win.
Montana — Assumed to be a strong Republican state, Montana has trended more Democratic as ex-California residents make their summer homes here or retire in the western part of the state. Still, on a presidential level, a Republican should win all things being equal and though Obamas camp has talked about winning here McCain will have a 4-5 percentage point win.
Nevada – What was once a tossup state became a pro-Obama state after the economic downturn. Nevada will go back to its tossup status the next time around but the economic woes hit hard here when people cut back on luxury trips and expenses and make it an Obama pickup.
New Mexico – The situation here mirrors that of other western states that are part of the breakdown of the traditional GOP advantage in the West. Obama almost always led here and New Mexico is also a victim of the reduced emphasis on attracting Hispanic voters in the McCain campaign compared with the two previous Bush elections.
North Carolina – This traditionally Republican state will wind up in the McCain column by a small margin as he picks up pro-life voters and white Democrats who favored Hillary Clinton. Obama has made it close with the high black turnout but McCains comeback here will put him over the top.
North Dakota – Normally a lock for Republicans, Obama has tried to make this a pickup state by planting major money and staff here. McCain should hold on with a closer victory than normal.
Ohio – The typical battleground state has been everything both sides expected. We’re awarding the state to McCain because of his late-breaking comeback, Obamas coal comments, and the work social conservatives are doing to attract votes for McCain. Ohio went for Bush in 2004 and 2000 and the return of the race to the typical conservative versus liberal battle will help turnout for McCain. That said, early voting is showing an advantage for Obama and McCain needs a good turnout of the base on election day to win.
Pennsylvania – The Keystone state has become McCains version of the Alamo. There is no doubt McCain has closed the gap, pro-life advocates are working overturn to get the base to turn out, Catholics are working hard to get Obama backers to convert, and the derogatory comments made by Obama and his supporters are being used against him. Still, Pennsylvania is a Democratic state and the national climate isn’t conducive to a McCain win. This is the state to watch on election night — if McCain wins, hes the next president and, if not, Obama will win the electoral college. Advantage Obama.
Virginia – Virginia is similar to Colorado in that a traditionally Republican state is trending Democratic in recent years. The strength of pro-life voters in the western part of the state will probably not make up for the advantage the northern Virginia voters give Obama. As is the case with Pennsylvania, if McCain wins here he probably wins the election but an Obama win will clinch the electoral college for him. Advantage Obama.
West Virginia – Obama hoped to win here, but McCain has strengthened is position with the strongly pro-life voters here and the McCain backers. The coal comments dont help. McCain win.
An Obama victory should not be taken as a refutation of the pro-life position or pro-life candidates. This years election is a departure from the last two contests with what has become a 50-50 breakdown in the electoral college.
McCain had an electoral college lead or a tie throughout much of the summer and Fall months until the economic downturn ruined his campaign. Obamas status as the first potential African-American president also played a role and turned normally uncompetitive states like North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana and others into battlegrounds.
Had McCain been able to take money and resources to put them into smaller battleground states in the West and industrial Midwest he could have picked up a blue state or two. Obamas significant fundraising advantage also put the election out of McCains reach.
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