Pro-Life Writer Predicts Exit Polls to Show Fewer Abortion Voters, McCain Aided
by Steven Ertelt
LifeNews.com Editor
November 4, 2008
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — A leading pro-lifer writer has a prediction for the post-election analysis found in the exit polls of voters in battleground states. Ramesh Ponnuru of National Review believes there will be fewer voters voting based on abortion issues, but that those voters will strongly support McCain over Obama.
"The exit polls will show that voters who consider abortion .. among the most important issues in the election will back McCain over Obama," Ponnuru writes.
However, he says "there won’t be as many such voters as there were in 2004" — when pro-life "values voters" turned out in record numbers.
"These are extremely safe predictions," Ponnuru explains. "The first one is safe because the social issues have been reliable generators of votes for Republicans for decades. The second is safe because the importance of those issues declines in tough economic times and when Republicans don’t run on them."
Ponnuru says the mainstream media and abortion advocates, if Obama wins, will be quick to claim the death of the pro-life movement in national politics.
"After the election, there will be many confident declarations that social conservatives are finished as a political force," he says.
But Ponnuru says such claims are far-fetched and that pro-life advocates will make a comeback in subsequent elections.
"These declarations will be proven wrong within the next two election cycles," he writes.
Ponnuru says that "opposition to abortion has been slightly increasing, and national polls" and that counteracts the opinion that the abortion issue is dead or that pro-life advocates are losing if Obama wins.
Polling data from the presidential election appears to back Ponnuru’s assessment as a new Gallup poll finds the issue of abortion gives Senator John McCain a 5-1 advantage over his pro-abortion rival Barack Obama.
The new Gallup survey asked respondents to tell the pollster in their own words why they were supporting McCain or Obama, without ticking off a list of issues.
Three percent of all voters named abortion as the reason for their vote. While five percent of McCain voters specifically said abortion is the issue that is motivating them to support McCain just one percent of Obama backers said abortion is the reason for supporting him.
Gallup noted the abortion advantage for McCain calling it "a significant draw to his candidacy."
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