Latest State Polls Show McCain Comeback, Must Win Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia
by Steven Ertelt
November 2, 2008
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — New state polls released over the weekend show presidential hopeful John McCain making a comeback against his pro-abortion rival Barack Obama. While McCain is looking better in some of the key battleground states, to win the electoral college he needs help in three more.
The respected Mason-Dixon polling firm released surveys on Sunday showing McCain with leads of two percent in Ohio, three percent in North Carolina, and one percent in Missouri.
Friday polls from various polling firms show McCain with leads of three and five percent in Georgia, 13 in West Virginia, three and four percent in Montana, one percent in North Dakota, and a tie in Indiana.
Adding those states to the McCain column decreases the potential electoral college lead Obama could have on election night, but it is not enough to get McCain over the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the election.
That’s because McCain trails in three other states that, if he wins them, would put him over the top — Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.
A Sunday Mason-Dixon poll shows McCain trailing Obama by three in Virginia, a Saturday Rasmussen poll has McCain down four points in Pennsylvania, and two polls show McCain trailing in Florida by two and four points respectively.
A loss of any of the three states and it’s almost a guarantee that McCain will lose the election. That’s because he’s behind in too many other states that require him to carry Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral college votes.
Weekend polling data shows McCain trailing Obama by five in Colorado, by four in Nevada, by seven in New Mexico, and by double digits in Iowa, New Hampshire, and the states that have all disappeared as pickup opportunities — Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
Should McCain win Colorado and either Nevada, or New Hampshire, he can make up for the loss of Virginia but can’t make up for losing Pennsylvania or Florida. But doing so appears unlikely and his best chance is to win the three eastern states.
Without Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania, the current LifeNews.com analysis gives Obama 318 electoral votes compared with 220 for McCain. With the addition of the three, McCain can pull out a 281 to 257 electoral vote victory.
Winning two of the three leaves Obama with a narrow victory.
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