New National Poll: Obama Loses Two Percent to McCain, Ahead by Just Two

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Nov 2, 2008   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

New National Poll: Obama Loses Two Percent to McCain, Ahead by Just Two

by Steven Ertelt Editor
November 2
, 2008

Washington, DC ( — A new national daily tracking poll from the pollster that had the most accurate results of the 2004 presidential elections shows more movement towards John McCain. Barack Obama, the pro-abortion candidate, lost two percentage points from his 4.5 percent lead on Saturday.

The new Investors Business Daily poll shows him dropping to a 2.1 percentage point lead over McCain.

Obama now leads by a small 46.7 to 44.6 percentage point margin with 8.7 percent of Americans still undecided.

With the margin of error at 3.4 percentage points, the race is essentially tied.

The results are good news for McCain because he has cut into Obama’s lead even though the IBD poll has finally got younger voters represented the way political observers expect they will go.

Voters who are between the ages of 18 and 24 are expected to support Obama in large margins and previous IBD polls had them backing McCain. In the latest, those voters approve of Obama by nearly a 2-1 margin yet Obama is losing ground. IBD explains why.

"The race tightened again Sunday as independents who’d been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up," the newspaper reported. "McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates."

Those are all key groups in the states McCain must win to propel himself to victory on Tuesday.

As has reported, McCain appears to be regaining ground in many of the states that went for President Bush in 2000 and 2004, but still must capture Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida to win a victory in the electoral college.

Looking more at the new IBD poll, McCain holds a 54-40 percent lead with men but trails 52 to 37 percent among women. About 85 percent of Democrats back Obama while 89 percent of Republicans support McCain and independents back McCain by a 45-43 percentage point margin.

Independent voters are twice as likely to be undecided as Republicans or Democrats.

McCain could be in a better position but he’s losing 21 percent of the self-identified conservatives while Obama only loses 6 percent of voters who call themselves liberals. Moderates are nearly 2-1 for Obama and almost twice as likely to be undecided.

The IBD poll found Protestants for McCain 55-36 percent, Catholics for McCain 51-36 percent, while Jewish voters and non-religious voters are for Obama.

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