Polls Show Race Still Tightening, Obama Leads by 3, Some Still Undecided
by Steven Ertelt
October 29, 2008
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — The national poll released on Wednesday continue to show a tightening presidential race and are increasingly lowering the lead Barack Obama has and narrowing it down to about three percent. One poll shows a large block of undecided voters and an opportunity for a victory for John McCain.
The Investor’s Business Daily tracking poll, which was the most accurate during the 2004 elections, shows Obama leading 46.9 percent to 43.9 percent for McCain and 9.2 percent still undecided.
That represents a gain of .2 percent from yesterday’s tracking numbers for McCain and a drop for Obama of .8 percent. Obama has been unable to crack 48 percent — yet alone the 50 percent mark for an assured victory as the number of undecided voters has remained at 9 percent or higher for weeks.
Should those voters break solidly for McCain, as they are appearing to do now, the Arizona senator could find himself with a narrow victory.
IBD shows Obama still leads by 5 to 6 points among Independents, but 18% of them remain undecided as do 13 percent of Catholic voters.
Meanwhile, the Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll shows significant movement in McCain’s direction.
It has Obama attracting 50% of the vote nationwide while McCain has 47 percent. One percent (1%) of voters prefer a third-party option and 2% are undecided.
This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month and the first time his support has topped 46% since September 24.
Rasmussen shows that the most likely voters to turn out make the race even closer. Among those who always vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point. Obama does better among more casual voters who may not show up on election day. As for those who have not yet voted but are certain they will do so, the race is tied at 48%.
Obama is now viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide, McCain by 54% in the Rasmussen poll.
The latest Gallup poll employing methods that find the absolute most likely voters to head to the polls this election year shows Obama leading 49-46 percent with two percent of voters still undecided.
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