Gallup Poll: Obama Lead Down to Two, McCain Gains Ground in Zogby Survey

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Oct 28, 2008   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

Gallup Poll: Obama Lead Down to Two, McCain Gains Ground in Zogby Survey

by Steven Ertelt Editor
October 28
, 2008

Washington, DC ( — National political polls on Tuesday showed more gains for John McCain on Tuesday, Barack Obama dropping and Gallup showing the race essentially tied. The Gallup survey, relying on polling the voters most likely to turn out, finds Obama leading by two, within the margin of error.

Gallup has released two daily presidential tracking polls, with one based on a much-maligned model showing dramatic increases in new voters, including young voters, African-Americans, and new registrants.

Its more traditional model, which doesn’t guess who will turn out but takes into account current voting intention and past voting behavior, shows Obama with a scant two percentage point lead.

Obama now leads by a 49-47 percentage point margin — which is outside the poll’s three percent margin of error.

That is down from a 50-45 percentage point lead in the last two days and a 51-44 percent lead from the end of last week.

The Tuesday daily tracking poll from Zogby International shows more good news for McCain.

The Monday poll found Obama leading by 4.8 percentage points, but that lead lowered to 4.3 on Tuesday as Obama lost nearly a percentage point in the poll.

The Zogby survey found Obama ahead 49 to 44.7 percent with another 6.3 percent of voters undecided. That was a change from the 49.9 to 45.1 percentage point lead Obama held Monday.

Obama’s support has vanished over the last few days in the Zogby poll — going from 52.2 percent last Thursday to 51.1 percent on Saturday to 49.9 percent on Monday.

The McCain resurgence hasn’t been entirely from undecided voters — as there were 7.5 percent undecided last Thursday. Some of it has come from peeling away Obama supporters who may have last-minute doubts about voting for the pro-abortion candidate.

Under the Zogby poll, McCain wins 87% of the Republican support, and Obama 84% of the Democratic support, and each candidate wins 11% of the opposing party’s support.

If McCain can win the backing of more Republican voters, most of whom are pro-life, he stands a better chance at eking out a come from behind victory on Tuesday.

Obama continues to lead among independent voters – his advantage now stands at 16 points, 51% to 35%. McCain leads among men, 48% to 45%, while Obama leads among women by a larger 53% to 42% margin.

Obama continues to lead with Hispanics by a 66% to 28% margin.

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