Electoral College Analysis: John McCain Needs Three States to Tie, Four to Win
by Steven Ertelt
October 26, 2008
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — The latest LifeNews.com analysis of the electoral college battle between John McCain and pro-abortion candidate Barack Obama shows McCain behind but a switch of three battleground states to the McCain column could yield a tie and a switch of a fourth would give McCain a victory.
According to the analysis, based on the most recent polls from media outlets and respected polling firms, shows Obama with a 311 to 227 lead over McCain — though the nearly 100 electoral vote lead is somewhat deceptive.
Obama continues to have a solid hold on states in the northeast and on the Pacific while McCain has the strong support of southern and western states.
There are over a dozen states that could conceivably go either direction in the presidential contest, although the campaigns are contesting a few more.
While the McCain campaign is hoping to take Pennsylvania out of Obamas column or sneak up on him in states like Wisconsin, New Hampshire or Minnesota, polling data shows it highly unlikely as Obama has double digit leads in all four states.
Likewise, Obama is hoping to add Georgia and West Virginia to his column but the two states appear as if they will stay red.
The rest of the states up for grabs are all states that favored President Bush in 2004 and have gone historically Republican in previous elections. Most of them are also states where the pro-life message resonates and residents are typically more pro-life than pro-abortion.
The current analysis shows Obama carrying Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia while McCain will keep Florida, Montana, North Dakota, North Carolina and Indiana.
The general consensus over the last three weeks hasn’t changed much as McCain essentially needs a sweep of these 10 states to win the election. In order to move the electoral college math in his direction, McCain needs a win in Ohio, Virginia and Colorado to pull even with a 269-269 tie. To win, McCain must capture those three states and take either Nevada, New Mexico (more likely the former) or make a surprising comeback in Pennsylvania.
The polling data shows a McCain win still within the realm of possibility.
Ohio polls have two showing Obama with double digit leads recently, but two showing the contest tied and one has McCain in the lead by two points. Obama has led in Virginia since the beginning of October, but the most recent survey has him leading by just two.
Colorado presents a challenge as McCain hasn’t led in months but three recent polls all show Obama leading by five percent or less. Nevada polls show leads of five percent or less, and one tie, for Obama while the pro-abortion candidate leads by much larger margins in New Mexico.
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