Most Accurate Pollster in 2004 Shows McCain Trailing Obama by Just 1.1%

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Oct 23, 2008   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

Most Accurate Pollster in 2004 Shows McCain Trailing Obama by Just 1.1%

by Steven Ertelt Editor
October 23
, 2008

Washington, DC ( — The firm that was labeled the most accurate pollster in the 2004 presidential elections says presidential candidate John McCain has made up more ground. The senator now trails pro-abortion candidate Barack Obama by just 1.1 percent nationwide and he has made gains with middle class voters.

"McCain has cut into Obama’s lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind," Investor’s Business Daily indicates.

Its poll, conducted by the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics, shows Obama at 44.8 percent, McCain at 43.7 percent and a large 11.6 percent of Americans still undecided.

"The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday" but McCain is making headway, IBD says, with middle- and working-class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000."

"He has also gone from an 11-point defecit to a 9-point lead among Catholics," IBDD adds.

Looking at some of the breakdown of the polling numbers, McCain now holds a lead among the influential suburban vote by holding a 57-31 percentage point lead.

McCain leads among men 49-41 percent but trails with women by a 48-39 percent margin. Obama receives the support of 84 percent of Democrats in the poll while McCain has the backing of 86 percent of Republicans and the split the independent vote with a 44-39 advantage for Obama.

Looking at political ideology, McCain only receives the support of 69% of conservatives while 87 percent of liberals back Obama.

The IBD survey comes one day after an Associated Press poll showed the presidential campaign essentially tied with Obama having a one point lead.

as pro-abortion candidate Barack Obama has a one point lead. Within the margin of error, the AP poll shows Obama with 44 percent and John McCain, who opposes abortion, with 43 percent.

The Associated Press-GfK poll also showed a high number of undecided voters heading into the final two weeks of the election.

Despite the good news in the AP survey, other national polls released from reputable polling firms on Wednesday showed Obama with a lead anywhere from two to eight percentage points.

Media polls, which have been questioned for having a higher percentage of Democratic voters, show the higher leads for Obama while polls from nonpartisan firms like Rasmussen show closer races.

A Washington University Battleground Poll, run by Republican pollster Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, has Obama leading by just two percent.

AP said its own poll may show more accurate results because it relied on including a random sampling of cell phone users, whereas other surveys rely only on interviewing voters with land lines.

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