Top Nonpartisan Polls Show Obama With 4-5 Percent Lead Over John McCain

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Oct 15, 2008   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

Top Nonpartisan Polls Show Obama With 4-5 Percent Lead Over John McCain

by Steven Ertelt Editor
October 15
, 2008

Washington, DC ( — While some presidential surveys are showing results that appear significantly out of the realm of possibility, two top nonpartisan polls are showing a close presidential race on the day of the third debate. A Zogby poll shows Barack Obama with a 3.8 percent lead while a Rasmussen poll has McCain down five.

The Zogby poll, which has correctly predicted the results of previous presidential elections, has shown Obama losing ground during the last three days of its tracking poll.

Obama now leads McCain by a 48.2% to 44.4% margin, an advantage of 3.8 percentage points. This comes after leading by 6.2 percentage points the day before.

Today’s polling report from Zogby shows McCain gained 1.6 percentage points, while Obama lost 0.8 percentage points.

Meanwhile, the Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll for Wednesday shows Obama with a 50-45 percentage point lead.

That’s the fourth straight day with identical numbers and the twentieth straight day that Obama’s support has stayed in the narrow range from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45%.

Two percent of voters say they will vote for “some other candidate” and 3% remain undecided.

For McCain, the encouraging news comes from core supporters—those who are certain how they will vote and that they will not change their mind. Just 42% are certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain.

"That two-point gap is much closer than the overall numbers. It’s also much closer than the 45% to 38% advantage among core supporters enjoyed by Obama heading into the second Presidential Debate last week," Rasmussen indicated.

"Overall, 12% of voters remain persuadables who favor one candidate or the other but could change their mind. Those, plus the 3% who remain undecided, are the target audience for both candidates in tonight’s debate," the polling firm added.

Overall, among all voters, Obama is now viewed favorably by 55% of voters, McCain by 53%.

In the Zogby poll, Obama lost ground among independents and now leads McCain by just 8 points, 44% to 36%, with the rest of the independents either favoring a different candidate or remaining undecided. Both candidates continue to perform well among their respective party members.

McCain has flipped places with Obama among men, and now leads by an insignificant one percent, while Obama leads by 8 points among women, down from 11 points in yesterday’s Zogby report.

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