Electoral College Map Shows Obama With Small Lead Over Economic Issues
by Steven Ertelt
September 28, 2008
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — Barack Obama has opened up a small lead over John McCain in the electoral college projection thanks to the renewed focus on economic issues, which favor him. Polls in battleground states now show Obama with small leads or solidifying the leads he already held.
The current LifeNews.com analysis of the electoral college map shows Obama, the pro-abortion candidate, with a 273-265 lead over Senator McCain.
As in our past overviews of the electoral college picture, neither candidate is contesting the base of support Obama has in the northeast and Pacific coast states or the base McCain has in the South and most of the Western states.
As November gets closer, the campaigns are also giving up efforts in marginal states they hoped to pick off, with the Obama campaign pulling staff and resources out of places like Montana and Georgia and Iowa appearing out of reach for McCain.
Previous analysis of the electoral college race showed a tight contest and even a slight lead for McCain until the recent economic panic shifted the polls decidedly in Obamas direction.
Assuming the rest of the debates are not game-changing and nothing out of the ordinary comes up during the last month of the election, the question of who will win the election appears as if it will be determined by the fate of the economy over the next month and which side does the best job in turning out its base in key states.
If Americans feel more comfortable about the direction of the country and if pro-life advocates can generate more concern about the effects of an Obama administration, McCain benefits and can pull out a November victory.
Looking at the top battleground states:
Florida — The Sunshine State has been McCain country most of the election and Obama appears to have closed the gap some during the month of September, but McCain would carry the state if the election were held today.
Ohio — Senator McCain has had a modest lead in Ohio since early August and hasn’t yielded much ground. Even with the new focus on the economy, the most recent poll of likely voters shows McCain ahead by one point and the only polls show Obama with a lead are only of registered, not likely, voters.
Pennsylvania – McCain hasn’t had a lead since April and the latest polls show Obama building a bigger lead thanks to the new focus on the economy. Unless the debates or something else changes the tenor of the campaign here, Pennsylvania will stay in the Obama column.
Michigan – Michigan is much like Pennsylvania only the disparity between Obama and McCain is larger and growing. Both states went for the pro-abortion candidate in 2000 and 2004 and 2008 doesn’t appear to be any different at this point.
Virginia – The presidential candidates have exchanged leads in Virginia throughout the summer and into August and September. A week ago, McCain could say he would carry the state by a small margin but Obama has leads in three of the last four polls. Virginia will go down to the wire but Obama has the advantage at the moment.
North Carolina – The black turnout in North Carolina will assuredly help Obama make this state closer than it normally is in presidential races. The most recent poll gives Obama a two point advantage, but McCain will likely resume his lead (which he has held throughout the campaign) after the economic panic came to a head this week.
Wisconsin – McCain hasn’t had a lead in a poll here since May and, though he closed the gap with Obama after the Republican convention and picking Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, the gap is widening again.
Missouri — Senator McCain has had a lead in Missouri throughout most of the election and, though recent polls show Obama closing the gap, hes yet to take the lead here.
Indiana – Obama tried to make the Hoosier state competitive, but Republican voters and pro-life Democrats here appear to be heading home to support McCain.
Minnesota – The convention and choice of Sarah Palin helped McCain close the gap but Obama appears likely to win in Minnesota unless McCain can find another way to cause a surge like the one Palin gave him.
Colorado – The influx of retirees and young professionals from California and the northeast have changed the dynamics of politics in Colorado and this appears the most likely state to flip-flop from the GOP column this election. Obamas campaign appeared to understand the new liberal trend in Colorado by holding the Democratic convention here and his lead has solidified over the last two weeks. McCains campaign and the pro-life movement will have to work overtime if they want to win here.
New Mexico — See Colorado New Mexico has gone from the state that was decided by just over 100 votes to an Obama stronghold and the most recent poll shows the pro-abortion senator leading by double digits. Its not too late for McCain to come back, but that effort has to begin now.
New Hampshire – How many Massachusetts residents can this little northeastern state absorb and still support a Republican for president? Though state residents loved McCain the GOP primaries, the influx of liberal voters has helped Obama build a small single digit lead. McCain needs the Granite State if he wants to win in November.
Nevada – Of the three small Western states in play, Nevada appears most likely to stick with McCain and it appears hes weathered the economic troubles that have sunk his polling numbers elsewhere. The only problem is that McCain has to make Colorado and New Mexico more competitive or Obama can begin shifting resources here from those battleground states.
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