Electoral College Projection Shows McCain, Obama in Extremely Tight Contest
by Steven Ertelt
August 24, 2008
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — As the Democratic Party begins its convention week leading up to the coronation for pro-abortion presidential candidate Barack Obama, a new electoral college projection shows Obama with more surefire votes in his column but John McCain with a very slight lead when a projection of tossup states is included.
The polling data in the various battleground states will likely change significantly following both the Democratic and Republican conventions. Obama is expected to receive a bump after this week and McCain should receive a subsequent bump following the selection of his running mate and the GOP convention.
Without including states where the polls show a close race, Obama appears to have a 228-185 lead.
That starting point has Obama leading in the traditionally strong Democratic states in the northeast (except New Hampshire) and on the West coast. It also puts his home state of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa in his column.
Some pundits say Oregon, Iowa and Wisconsin are states McCain could put in play but Obama has had leads in every poll in those states since April and May. The same can be said of Missouri, Georgia, Montana, Indiana, Alaska and North Dakota — states Obama hoped to pull out of the historic Republican column but ones where McCain appears to be building a solid lead over time.
In fact, recent news reports last week indicate Obama pulled his television advertising in some of those Republican-leaning states that dont appear to be as likely to fall to him.
That leaves 11 states that will ultimately determine the fate of the presidential election — and ones that were the most highly targeted in both the 2000 and 2004 elections.
Looking at those states with the electoral college outcome at stake, McCain appears to have leads in Florida (where four of the last five polls show him leading), North Carolina, (five of five), and Nevada (two of three). Conversely, Obama appears to have a slight edge in Michigan (leading in five of five recent polls) and Minnesota (four of four).
The closest tossup states appear to include Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico.
Virginia and Ohio and historically gone Republican and polls give McCain the edge in the latter state. Obamas not picking a Virginia running mate makes it more difficult for him to capture that state. Polls in New Hampshire are trending towards Obama while Colorados are trending towards McCain (though the Democratic convention may change that). New Mexico is anyones ball game though the edge appears to be Obamas.
Assigning the states as such gives McCain a scant 274-264 advantage — earning him the presidential election by a mere 10 electoral college votes.
With seven of the 11 tossup states and a combination of any other state and Colorado yielding 10 or more electoral votes, the race appears to be too close to call at this point.
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