Electoral College Matchup Gives Barack Obama Bigger Lead Over John McCain
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by Steven Ertelt
LifeNews.com Editor
July 17, 2008
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — A new LifeNews.com electoral college projection shows Barack Obama cruising to a larger lead over John McCain. The pro-abortion candidate expanded on the very narrow lead he had in the late June survey of the election landscape and would now clearly win if the election were held today.
According to the analysis, including projections of toss-up states, Obama would capture 294 electoral votes to 244 for McCain — eclipsing the 270 needed to become president.
Obama wins based on his leads in polls in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan as well as smaller toss-up states like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa.
The projection shows McCain winning in hotly-contested places like Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana, but his losing states President Bush carried one or both of the last elections hurts his chances.
Still, the race is extremely close with 120 electoral vote as clear tossups and a change of just a percentage point or two in states like Ohio, Nevada, and others could significantly change the landscape.
Changing those two states alone would yield a 269-269 tie, though Obama would presumably win any election thrown to the House of Representatives in case of a tie given Democratic control of the chamber.
Because more tossup electoral votes are currently projected in the Obama column, the pro-abortion candidate has more to lose and a McCain comeback could easily see the pro-life candidate win enough votes to become president.
Predicting the electoral college is an imprecise art, but LifeNews.com’s projections take into account past voting history, current polls, and the trend of the polls in favoring a certain candidate or moving to another candidate’s direction.
That combination approach allowed LifeNews.com to correctly predict the electoral college map for the entire nation at the end of the 2004 presidential race.
Other entities doing electoral college analysis yield different results.
A review of the map from the nonpartisan Cook political report gives McCain a 2XX-2XX advantage over Obama. The pro-life news outlet Human Events predicts 273 for Obama and 265 for McCain.
Though those scenarios are more rosy for McCain, the nonpartisan Real Clear Politics web site scored the race a 255-163 lead for Obama without tossups included and a decisive 322-216 victory for Obama if they’re included.
However, the RCP web site forces a result in a state based on the latest poll without considering past history or trends.
Below is a table showing the last poll or the average of the most recent polls in a given state, the percentage breakdown between both candidates, and the trend.
Most Recent General Election Matchup Polls
John McCain vs. Barack Obama
State Electoral Votes John McCain Barack Obama Trend Alabama 9 49% 36% McCain 3-0 Alaska 3 45% 41% McCain 3-0 Arizona 10 49% 40% McCain 3-0 Arkansas 6 52% 39% McCain 3-0 California 55 36% 53% Obama 5-0 Colorado 9 43% 46% Obama 3-0 Connecticut 7 35% 55% Obama 3-0 D.C. 3 9% 90% Obama 1-0 Deleware 3 41% 50% Obama 1-0 Florida 27 46% 44% McCain 2-2 Georgia 15 50% 43% McCain 3-0 Hawaii 4 31% 61% Obama 1-0 Idaho 4 52% 39% McCain 1-0 Illinois 21 41% 52% Obama 3-0 Indiana 11 47% 47% Obama 3-1 Iowa 7 41% 51% Obama 3-0 Kansas 6 58% 35% McCain 3-0 Kentucky 8 53% 41% McCain 3-0 Louisiana 9 56% 37% McCain 3-0 Maine 4 33% 55% Obama 4-0 Maryland 10 37% 51% Obama 3-0 Massachusetts 12 33% 53% Obama 3-0 Michigan 17 41% 49% Obama 4-0 Minnesota 10 40% 52% Obama 3-0 Mississippi 6 50% 44% McCain 3-0 Missouri 11 48% 45% McCain 3-1 Montana 3 46% 42% McCain 2-1 Nebraska 5 53% 35% McCain 3-0 Nevada 5 43% 45% Obama 2-1 New Hampshire 4 43% 44% McCain 2-1 New Jersey 15 39% 47% Obama 4-0 New Mexico 5 36% 49% Obama 3-0-1 New York 31 34% 54% Obama 4-0 North Carolina 15 47% 43% McCain 4-0 North Dakota 3 47% 46% McCain 2-1 Ohio 20 43% 47% Obama 3-1 Oklahoma 7 57% 31% McCain 3-0 Oregon 7 41% 48% Obama 3-0 Pennsylvania 21 40% 48% Obama 4-0 Rhode Island 4 31% 53% Obama 3-0 South Carolina 8 45% 39% McCain 3-0 South Dakota 3 51% 34% McCain 3-0 Tennessee 11 53% 37% McCain 3-0 Texas 34 49% 38% McCain 4-0 Utah 5 54% 31% McCain 3-0 Vermont 3 29% 63% Obama 2-0 Virginia 13 47% 47% Obama 2-1 Washington 11 39% 49% Obama 5-0 West Virginia 5 45% 37% McCain 2-0 Wisconsin 10 41% 52% Obama 4-0 Wyoming 3 53% 40% McCain 2-0
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