Electoral College Projection Shows Obama Defeating McCain by Narrow Vote

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Jun 20, 2008   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

Electoral College Projection Shows Obama Defeating McCain by Narrow Vote

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by Steven Ertelt
LifeNews.com Editor
June 20
, 2008

Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — The latest LifeNews.com electoral college vote projection shows, for the first time, pro-abortion presidential candidate Barack Obama has a very narrow lead over rival John McCain. McCain had been leading Obama in previous projections until Obama vanquished primary opponent Hillary Clinton.

According to the projections, if the election were held today Obama would become the next president with a 285-253 electoral college victory.

The post-primary bounce Obama has experienced has propelled him to new leads over McCain in states like Ohio and Virginia where McCain had small leads before.

Looking at the electoral college map, Obama has 91 solid votes with most of them coming from the northeastern states that have typically voted for Democrats for president.

Obama also brings home 194 electoral votes from states that are barely or more solidly leaning towards him.

Those include very narrow leads in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico. Obama also has small leads in competitive states like Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.

McCain currently holds 96 solid electoral college votes with strong showings in historically Republican states in the South and West.

McCain has 157 electoral college votes from states that lean his direction, with narrow leads in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Indiana, Nevada and New Hampshire and more solid leads in other states like Teas, Georgia, and West Virginia.

However, the closeness of the presidential race can’t be underestimated.

Though the projection shows Obama ahead, McCain has more of an opportunity to pick off his states than Obama has a chance to win states that are leaning towards McCain or more solidly in his favor.

Obama’s leads states like Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota and Virginia are tenuous and McCain is within the margin of error in each state.

The projection would show McCain with a 273-265 electoral college victory but his one percent lead in the most recent Ohio poll is offset by two other recent polls show Obama with leads of six and eleven percent respectively.

In tossup states like Ohio, LifeNews.com relied on an average of the most recent polls to determine how the state’s votes should be awarded. That average is seen in the trend column in the table below.

Most Recent General Election Matchup Polls
John McCain vs. Barack Obama

State Electoral Votes John McCain Barack Obama Trend Alabama 9 57% 33% McCain 3-0 Alaska 3 45% 41% McCain 3-0 Arizona 10 50% 39% McCain 3-0 Arkansas 6 48% 39% McCain 3-0 California 55 35% 52% Obama 5-0 Colorado 9 42% 48% Obama 5-0-1 Connecticut 7 44% 47% Obama 3-0 D.C. 3 9% 90% Obama 1-0 Deleware 3 41% 50% Obama 1-0 Florida 27 47% 39% McCain 2-1 Georgia 15 51% 41% McCain 3-0 Hawaii 4 31% 61% Obama 1-0 Idaho 4 52% 39% McCain 1-0 Illinois 21 31% 60% Obama 2-0 Indiana 11 47% 45% Tie 2-2 Iowa 7 45% 49% Obama 3-0 Kansas 6 47% 37% McCain 3-0 Kentucky 8 53% 41% McCain 3-0 Louisiana 9 50% 41% McCain 3-0 Maine 4 33% 55% Obama 4-0 Maryland 10 37% 51% Obama 3-0 Massachusetts 12 38% 51% Obama 3-0 Michigan 17 42% 40% McCain 2-0 Minnesota 10 46% 47% Obama 3-0 Mississippi 6 50% 44% McCain 3-0 Missouri 11 45% 44% McCain 3-1 Montana 3 47% 39% McCain 3-0 Nebraska 5 57% 29% McCain 3-0 Nevada 5 44% 42% McCain 2-1 New Hampshire 4 45% 43% McCain 2-1 New Jersey 15 39% 45% Obama 4-0 New Mexico 5 44% 44% Obama 2-0-1 New York 31 32% 51% Obama 4-0 North Carolina 15 45% 41% McCain 4-0 North Dakota 3 44% 38% McCain 1-0 Ohio 20 42% 47% Obama 2-1 Oklahoma 7 52% 38% McCain 3-0 Oregon 7 38% 46% Obama 3-0 Pennsylvania 21 40% 52% Obama 4-0 Rhode Island 4 38% 53% Obama 1-0 South Carolina 8 48% 39% McCain 2-0 South Dakota 3 51% 34% McCain 3-0 Tennessee 11 58% 31% McCain 3-0 Texas 34 52% 39% McCain 3-0 Utah 5 54% 31% McCain 3-0 Vermont 3 29% 63% Obama 2-0 Virginia 13 45% 47% Obama 3-1 Washington 11 35% 53% Obama 3-0 West Virginia 5 45% 37% McCain 2-0 Wisconsin 10 43% 52% Obama 3-0 Wyoming 3 53% 40% McCain 2-0

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