Barack Obama Will Likely Win in Oregon, Hillary Clinton Landslide in Kentucky

State   |   Steven Ertelt   |   May 20, 2008   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

Barack Obama Will Likely Win in Oregon, Hillary Clinton Landslide in Kentucky

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by Steven Ertelt Editor
May 20
, 2008

Washington, DC ( — Barack Obama will likely emerge victorious tonight in Oregon’s Democratic presidential primary while Hillary Clinton is a lock to win the contest in Kentucky. Both pro-abortion presidential candidates are fighting for the right to take on eventual GOP nominee John McCain, who opposes abortion.

The latest surveys show Clinton has the Democratic vote locked up in Kentucky — another state with the kind of white, moderate, and pro-life Democrats who will not support Obama in the general election.

A Suffolk University poll released Monday shows Clinton leading by a whopping 26 percentage point margin, 51 to 25 percent. A Monday Survey USA poll shows a larger lead, with her topping Obama 62 to 31 for a 31 percent lead.

An American Research Group poll released Friday found a similar advantage as it had Clinton leading her pro-abortion rival 65 to 29 percent.

Meanwhile, in Oregon, Obama appears to have widened his lead there. He had previously been leading by single digits but some of the new surveys show that number growing — not surprising after the Portland rally featuring more than 65,000 people.

Two surveys show Obama with a double digit lead now: a PPP poll has him ahead 18 points of Clinton at 56 to 38 percent and a Survey USA poll shows him leading Clinton 13 percent by a 55 to 42 percent split.

However, a Suffolk University poll, released on Monday like the aforementioned Oregon surveys, shows Obama ahead by a slimmer 45 to 41 percent margin. That corresponds with an ARG poll from Friday showing him ahead 50 to 45 percent.

The candidates will split 103 delegates on Tuesday that are “pledged” to support either candidate with Kentucky having 51 delegates and Oregon 52.

After the voting, Obama will clinch a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates, though not an overall majority of all delegates needed to win the nomination.

According to an Associated Press tally, Obama leads Clinton among pledged delegates by 1,610 to 1,443. That means Obama is just 17 delegates away from a majority of pledged delegates. Obama will easily win those tonight.

Following Tuesday night’s results, Clinton will likely gain slightly on Obama’s overall delegate lead but not by enough to make it appear she has a chance of winning the nomination. She will likely call for the Florida and Michigan delegates to be seated to give her a better chance at winning.

Even then, most analysis shows Clinton can’t win the nomination unless she is able to stem the tide of the exodus of superdelegates to Obama and get many of them to return to her camp.

There will be a clear contrast between either Obama or Clinton and McCain on the issue of abortion in the general election.

While Obama and Clinton favor taxpayer-funded abortions, partial-birth abortions, and have pledged to appoint judges who will keep abortions unlimited and legal another 35 years, McCain is on the opposite side on each point.