Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton Will Likely Split Oregon and Kentucky

State   |   Steven Ertelt   |   May 16, 2008   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton Will Likely Split Oregon and Kentucky

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by Steven Ertelt Editor
May 16
, 2008

Portland, OR ( — Democratic voters in Oregon and Kentucky will choose between pro-abortion presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton next week. The most recent polling data shows they will split the states, with Obama capturing Oregon and Clinton picking up Kentucky.

That’s a result that would likely keep Clinton in the Democratic presidential race and increase pressured on her to leave the campaign as it becomes less and less likely she will be able to overcome the delegate lead Obama has amassed.

That latest polls out of Oregon show Obama could win the state by double digits and possibly more than 20 points.

A Portland Tribune poll released on Wednesday shows Obama ahead by a 55 to 35 percent margin.

Two polls released Tuesday, from the Democratic PPP polling firm and SurveyUSA also show Obama leading by double digits. The first has him at 53 percent and Clinton and 39 percent, a 14 point spread, and the second has Obama on top 54 to 43 percent.

The most recent Kentucky poll of Democrats was conducted from May 7-9 by Research 2000 and it had Clinton leading by 27 points with a 58 to 31 percent advantage.

Two polls that ended on May 5, from Rasmussen and Survey USA, showed Clinton leading by 25 and 34 percent respectively.

Looking at the delegate counts, Obama has a total of 1,891 delegates, including 92 super delegates and 1599 pledged delegates. Clinton caught up to Obama after her landslide West Virginia victory, but not enough to seriously threaten him. She now has 1719 delegates with 273 of them super delegates and 1446 pledged delegates.

After John Edwards endorsed Obama on Wednesday, six of the handful of delegates he won in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina pledged to support Obama.

Oregon and Kentucky combine for a total of 103 delegates and a split of the states wouldn’t allow Clinton a chance to catch up.

After the two states vote on Tuesday, Democrats go to the polls in Puerto Rico on June 1, and then vote in Montana and South Dakota on June 3 to close out the primary election calendar.