Electoral College Map Shows McCain Leading Both Obama and Clinton
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by Steven Ertelt
LifeNews.com Editor
April 28, 2008
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — To hear the Associated Press put it in a recent analysis, John McCain has such an uphill battle against Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton that the news service makes it appear either pro-abortion Democrat will likely win. However, a closer look at the numbers shows McCain doing leading in botch matchups.
In our March 26 analysis, state polling data showed McCain with a 268-191 electoral vote lead with 79 electoral votes undecided.
Now, McCain leads, but by a smaller 259-211 margin with 68 electoral votes undecided.
As in the previous analysis, McCain captures most of the traditionally Republican southern, Midwestern and western states.
However, Obama has built a new lead in Colorado he’s cut into McCain’s lead in North Carolina and Ohio, two states that have recently been in play in the Democratic primary and have seen Obama making numerous appearances. The numbers will likely shift back to McCain in the coming months.
In fact, merely putting North Carolina into the McCain column, without giving McCain wins in the tossup states of Michigan, New Jersey or Pennsylvania, gives McCain enough electoral college votes to capture the presidency.
Obama has also picked up support in Michigan, where a three point McCain lead has turned into a two point deficit; he’s increased his Minnesota lead to double digits from the low single digits; and he’s widened his lead in Washington.
On the other hand, McCain now holds a five percent lead in Nevada after trailing four percent in the previous analysis, he now leads by three percent in New Hampshire after trailing Obama by two last time, and he’s built a six point lead in New Mexico and an eight percent lead in Virginia.
When matched against Clinton, McCain had a strong 281-177 advantage last time giving him enough electoral votes to win the presidency, but he now holds a narrow 248-228 lead.
The map looks similar to the Obama comparison but Clinton, who made a comeback in Pennsylvania to defeat Obama there recently, has seen her numbers move up across the country.
Whereas McCain held leads in battleground states like Florida and Ohio before, they are now tossups. The same is true for Missouri, Iowa, Oregon and Wisconsin.
Compared with the last analysis, Clinton also picked up a new lead in Minnesota.
McCain’s numbers in Arkansas, Clinton’s former home state, look better now than in an early March survey and he’s expanded his lead in Michigan and Virginia and picked up a lead in Nevada and New Mexico.
Despite the closeness of the electoral vote projtections, McCain has an easier path to the presidency.
Looking at the current map for McCain and Clinton, McCain can win if he adds just Florida to his column. He also wins with a Florida loss and victories in three of the four other states where the candidates are tied — Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin and Missouri.
Clinton needs Florida to win but also must win two of the four other tossup states and one of those victories must include Missouri or Wisconsin.
Clinton can win each of the other four tossup states, but a loss in Florida prevents her from becoming president.
With either matchup for November, although the electoral college map shows a very competitive race with as many or more battleground states as in 2004, McCain clearly has a lead against either candidate at this point.
The LifeNews.com electoral college analysis relies on polling data from respected firms such as Rasmussen, Survey USA, and others with most of the surveys coming in the last two weeks.
We analyzed the latest polls in each state and only tabulated a state when the latest poll revealed a candidate has a lead greater than two percent.
In the 2004 presidential contest, LifeNews.com correctly predicted the electoral college vote and the winner in each of the fifty states and District of Columbia.
Most Recent General Election Matchup Polls
John McCain vs. Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton
State Electoral Votes John McCain Barack Obama John McCain Hillary Clinton Alabama 9 64% 32% 60% 34% Alaska 3 48% 43% 57% 32% Arizona 10 57% 37% 60% 32% Arkansas 6 59% 30% 50/36 43/51 California 55 43% 50% 42% 47% Colorado 9 43% 46% 50% 36% Connecticut 7 35% 52% 42% 45% D.C. 3 9% 90% 9% 90% Deleware 3 41% 50% 41% 46% Florida 27 53% 38% 44/42 45/44 Georgia 15 53% 40% 54% 34% Hawaii 4 31% 61% 39% 43% Idaho 4 52% 39% 63% 27% Illinois 21 31% 60% 37% 48% Indiana 11 51% 43% 52% 41% Iowa 7 41% 49% 42/48 43/42 Kansas 6 54% 37% 57% 36% Kentucky 8 63% 29% 48% 46% Louisiana 9 52% 41% 58% 36% Maine 4 39% 49% 42% 47% Maryland 10 40% 53% 40% 49% Massachusetts 12 39% 51% 36% 55% Michigan 17 41/43 42/43 46% 37% Minnesota 10 38% 52% 42/46 47/47 Mississippi 6 54% 41% 51% 42% Missouri 11 50% 42% 46/50 47/41 Montana 3 48% 43% 54% 36% Nebraska 5 45% 42% 57% 30% Nevada 5 48% 43% 49% 38% New Hampshire 4 46/44 43/46 47% 41% New Jersey 15 46/42 45/47 45/43 42/48 New Mexico 5 50/42 45/44 49/46 46/43 New York 31 39% 47% 37% 49% North Carolina 15 47/51 47/42 51% 40% North Dakota 3 44% 38% 53% 33% Ohio 20 47/47 45/40 42/47 53/42 Oklahoma 7 57% 34% 50% 42% Oregon 7 42% 51% 46/46 47/40 Pennsylvania 21 44/39 43/47 42/38 47/47 Rhode Island 4 38% 53% 37% 54% South Carolina 8 48% 45% 48% 42% South Dakota 3 51% 34% 59% 30% Tennessee 11 58% 31% 52% 38% Texas 34 47% 45% 49% 42% Utah 5 50% 39% 65% 27% Vermont 3 29% 63% 39% 49% Virginia 13 52% 44% 59% 39% Washington 11 40% 53% 45/46 48/43 West Virginia 5 53% 35% 42% 47% Wisconsin 10 43/44 47/49 46/46 46/42 Wyoming 3 54% 34% 61% 28%
Note: Numbers such as 44/43 dentoe two recent polls in competetive states with the first numbers in each set representing the most recent poll.
