by Steven Ertelt
March 26, 2008
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — New electoral college map projections from LifeNews.com based on March polling data shows John McCain has built a solid lead over both Barack Obama and would defeat Hillary Clinton. The feuding within the Democratic camp has allowed McCain to surge in polls in top battleground states.
The analysis relies on polling data from respected firms such as Rasmussen, Survey USA, and others with most of the surveys coming in the last two weeks.
LifeNews.com analyzed the latest polls in each state and only tabulated a state when polling data revealed a candidate has a lead greater than four percent, the typical margin of error.
In each comparison, McCain captures most of the traditionally Republican states in the South and West while Obama and Clinton lead in traditionally Democrat states in the Northeast and on the Pacific coast.
When matched against Obama, McCain has a 268-191 electoral vote lead with 79 electoral votes undecided.
McCain builds his lead with favorable polling data in battleground states showing him ahead of Obama: Florida (+11 percent), Missouri (+15), Ohio (+9), and West Virginia (+18). The map looks very similar to the final results of the 2004 race between President Bush and John Kerry.
The projection would show McCain winning the electoral vote, but he has only a three percent lead in New Hampshire, Michigan and Pennsylvania and the states were placed in the undecided category.
Obama holds on to leads in some key states such as Iowa (+9 percent), Minnesota (+4), New Mexico (+7), Nevada (+4), Oregon (+8), Washington (+6) and Wisconsin (+4).
Other tossup states include Colorado, New Jersey and Virginia where polls show both candidates tied.
When compared with Clinton, McCain wins with 281-177 electoral college votes — getting him past the 270 vote threshold needed for victory. Another 80 electoral votes are undecided.
But the makeup of the states is somewhat different as polls show many Clinton backers in the primary support McCain in the general election.
McCain has leads in the battleground states of Florida (+4) and Missouri (+9). Yet, he also takes states away from the Obama or undecided column when running against Clinton, including Colorado (+14), Iowa (+5), New Hampshire (+6), Oregon (+5), Pennsylvania (+6) and Virginia (+10).
Clinton, interestingly, holds leads in some states where McCain polls ahead of Obama or is tied. Those include Arkansas (+15), New Jersey (+5), Ohio (+6), and West Virginia (+5) and she pulls even with McCain in Tennessee.
Arkansas is Clinton’s former home state and New Jersey has a high number of voters in the New York media market, which could explain the disparity in those two states.
In the McCain-Clinton matchup, Connecticut, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, Tennessee, and Wisconsin all show ties or leads within four percent.