by Steven Ertelt
February 25, 2008
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) — A new survey of the electoral college math by LifeNews.com shows pro-abortion Democratic candidate Barack Obama would likely win the November presidential election against John McCain. However, McCain would appear to defeat Hillary Clinton if she became the Democratic nominee.
Looking at the past two presidential elections and current and recent polling data in states across the country, numerous states easily fit into a Republican or Democratic category no matter which candidate represents the Democratic Party.
Republicans begin with a 183 to 174 electoral advantage among states that will almost certainly go one way or the other. That’s due to the strong support the party has in presidential contests in southern and western states.
Looking at the tossup states, polls show some appear to side only with either Democratic candidate or with McCain.
McCain has leads over both Obama and Clinton in Florida, as a Rasmussen survey on February 18 shows him leading Obama by 16 and Clinton by 6 points. He also leads both candidates in Missouri, a February 13 Rasmussen poll confirms.
Both Democratic candidates have a lead over McCain in Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania as several recent polls show.
But the states the candidates split show Obama leading McCain and McCain leading Clinton. That’s the case in Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin.
The result is Obama would defeat McCain by a 293 to 245 electoral vote margin if the election were held today. McCain would likely defeat Clinton by the same electoral vote count with those same six states changing to his column.
The Clinton result assumes she, like Obama, does not come away with a win in Arkansas where she formerly lived.
Essentially, the same dozen or so tossup states that have been in play in both 2000 and 2004 will determine the election outcome this November.
Clinton would need help in several states to do as well as Al Gore or John Kerry, although the six tossup states have trended Democratic in recent elections.
For McCain to win against Obama, he must capture both Florida and Ohio and one of the six other tossup states where he leads Clinton but trails Obama. He leads in Florida by six percent but trails in Ohio by three percent in one poll and one percent in two others.
Winning Ohio and historically Republican Colorado would give McCain a 274-264 win.
Meanwhile, Obama is ahead by just one point in Oregon, three points in Iowa, and McCain leads in Pennsylvania by one point (though he trails Obama in other recent surveys). McCain and Obama are tied in New Mexico (we awarded it to Obama, who may possibly pick its governor, Bill Richardson, as his running mate).
Giving McCain Pennsylvania and New Mexico presents him a 271-267 edge over Obama.
Our analysis shows that, at this stage of the race, it’s not fair to say any candidate has an advantage on winning the White House — though it appears Obama clearly fares better against McCain than Clinton given the almost 50 point swing in electoral votes.
McCain appears to have a distinct lead over Clinton and is close enough to Obama to make it an especially competitive race.
The electoral college math is very sketchy at this point in the election – especially without an official candidate on either side of the aisle.
Not all of the states have had polls featuring head-to-head matchups between McCain and either Democratic candidate, polls that do exist feature a sizable number of undecided voters, and some matchup polls have either candidate leading by just one point or within the margin of error.
The numbers show the race is close and would likely finish near the 286-252 mark Bush won with over Kerry. Don’t count either side out until late October, if then.