John McCain Has Super Tuesday Lead Over Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Feb 4, 2008   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

John McCain Has Super Tuesday Lead Over Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee Email this article
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by Steven Ertelt Editor
February 4,

Washington, DC ( — As voters in almost two dozen states head to the polls on Tuesday, Arizona senator John McCain has a commanding lead over his top rivals Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. McCain leads in all but two states where recent polls have been conducted and Romney only leads in Massachusetts and Utah.

Looking at the averages of recent polls in the Super Tuesday states, McCain leads Romney 36 to 33 percent in California, 54 to 23 percent in New York and 36 to 22 percent in Illinois.

Despite those averages from Real Clear Politics, two new California polls show Romney could be making a comeback as he tops the entire field in advertising and campaign spending.

A Reuters weekend poll shows Romney leading McCain 40 to 32 percent in California and a weekend Rasmussen poll has the race tied at 38 percent apiece.

Huckabee had a lead in some of the southern states near Arkansas, where he served as a governor for more than 10 years. Romney was also expected to do well in these more conservative states, but the two appear to be splitting the vote in McCain’s favor.

In Georgia, McCain leads Romney and Huckabee 31 to 29 to 25 percent, respectively, and his lead is 34.5 to 27.8 over Huckabee in Missouri, 37.3 to 30.8 percent in Alabama, and 29 to 25.7 percent over Huckabee in Tennessee. McCain also leads Huckabee and Romney in Oklahoma by a large margin.

The southern states appear to be the only ones, other than California, with a tight contest and they are the only ones where all three top Republican candidates are competitive.

Romney leads in Massachusetts with a 54 to 28.7 percent advantage over McCain, and places a distant second in New Jersey, Connecticut and Arizona. He also leads in Utah, with its large Mormon constituency.

Huckabee, who has received the endorsement of pro-life groups in several states in the last week, comes in second in the southern states but no longer has a lead in any of them.

Ron Paul, who has yet to win any of the primary or caucus states, places in the low single digits in all of the Super Tuesday states for which polling data exists.

Several of the Super Tuesday states have no recent polling data, including Colorado, Minnesota, Arkansas, West Virginia, Alaska, North Dakota, Montana and Delaware.

Huckabee is expected to win Arkansas, but, if McCain’s lead in virtually all of the other Super Tuesday states is any indication, he will pick up most of the rest.