by Steven Ertelt
January 20, 2008
Tallahassee, FL (LifeNews.com) — Now that South Carolina and Nevada voters have had their say the race for the Republican nomination for president turns to Florida. There, polling data shows a four-way race between John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee with McCain having a slight lead over the other candidates.
An average of the last six polls in the state shows McCain leading with about 23 percent of the Republican vote and his win in South Carolina could boost those numbers heading into the January 29 contest.
Giuliani, the only self-declared pro-abortion candidate in the race, has about 20 percent of the vote in Florida while Romney, the Nevada winner, has 18 percent. Huckabee, the Iowa winner who came in second in South Carolina, pulls in 17 percent of the vote.
Fred Thompson, who many political observers expect to drop out of the race after finishing third in South Carolina, has the backing of about 9 percent of Republicans while Ron Paul has the backing of five percent.
Of the recent six polls five of them show McCain with a lead while one shows Giuliani with a lead — although by just one point over McCain and Romney and within the margin of error.
The makeup of the polls could shift significantly depending on how Florida voters perceive the race after the South Carolina and Nevada elections.
Voters could trend more for McCain after his win in the southern state and they could gravitate away from Huckabee with him not winning a sate with such a large percentage of pro-life and evangelical voters.
Should Fred Thompson withdraw from the race, his potential endorsement could sway voters. Polls tend to show that McCain voters tend towards Romney and Huckabee and his staying in the race could continue to split the more conservative elements of the Republican Party.
How Florida voters react to Romneys win in largely uncontested Nevada but is fourth place finish in South Carolina will be a big question mark in the coming days, but he has the campaign apparatus and money to remain competitive.
Rudy Giuliani is also an X-factor in the race. LifeNews.com predicted in December that he would not get the Republican nomination but hes polling well in Florida and has spent millions making a last stand there.