by Steven Ertelt
January 5, 2008
Concord, NH (LifeNews.com) — With the second presidential battle occurring tomorrow in New Hampshire, polls show John McCain ahead of Mitt Romney and the rest of the Republican field and Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton. The primary could spell the doom of some candidates’ campaigns and reshape the race after Iowa’s caucus vote last week.
On the Republican side, most of the polls released on Sunday or Monday show McCain in the lead while a couple show Romney in first. Most of the surveys have Iowa winner Mike Huckabee running third.
CNN has the race with McCain getting 32 percent of the GOP vote, Romney 26, Huckabee 14, Rudy Giuliani 11, Ron Paul 10 and Fred Thompson one percent.
Other surveys showing the same order of the top three include Marist College (35-31-13), Rasmussen (32-31-11), Franklin Pierce (38-29-9), Gallup (34-30-13), Strategic Vision (35-27-13), and Zogby (34-29-10).
The Concord Monitor, American Research Group and Mason Dixon all have the same order for the top three. Only a Suffulk/WHDH poll has Romney in the lead with a small 30-27 percentage margin difference over McCain.
Neither Giuliani, Paul nor Thompson earned more than 10 percentage points in any of the recent surveys.
On the Democratic side, every one of the recent polls shows Obama adding to his Iowa victory with a second win in the Granite State — something that could cause real headaches for Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.
Depending on the poll, Obama has a lead of anywhere from 13 points (41 percent to Clinton’s 28 and Edwards’ 19 in a Gallup survey) to just one percent (35-34-15) in a Suffolk/WHDH poll.
All of the surveys have Clinton in second and Edwards third — a reverse of their finish in Iowa — with CNN showing a 39-29-16 breakdown, Marist 36-28-22, Rasmussen 38-28-18, Franklin Pierce 34-31-20, Strategic Vision 38-29-19, Zogby 39-29-19, and American Research Group 39-28-22.
Should McCain go on to win the New Hampshire primary, political observers say none of the six major Republican candidates are likely to drop out.
Huckabee would have an Iowa win under his belt and be hoping for another victory in conservative South Carolina, Romney has a second in Iowa and a win in unheralded Wyoming and the money to continue after a likely second place showing in New Hampshire.
Giuliani is banking on a strategy with him pulling a major comeback in Florida and the Super Tuesday states, Fred Thompson has already left New Hampshire and is making South Carolina his make or break state, and Ron Paul has the money to continue his Internet-based campaign despite what would appear to be another back-of-the-field finish.
For Democrats, should Obama win in New Hampshire he would have two major victories under his belt and both Edwards and Clinton would have reasons to worry.
Clinton will have lost the air of inevitability and the momentum in the race will clearly be on Obama’s side. Edwards would no longer be seen as the better anti-Hillary candidate and he may consider dropping out or trying one last time for a win in South Carolina near his stomping grounds.